Leopards vs Police: match statistics
Leopards vs Police: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Leopards played Police in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Leopards: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Police: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Leopards scores 1.33 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Police scores 0.85 and concedes 0.63. League average: 2.01 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Leopards 37%, Police 30%. Over 2.5: Leopards 33%, Police 15%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
Police has higher xG: 1.57 vs 1.38. Leopards: 8.9 shots per match, Police: 11.6.
Match halves
Leopards: half-time lead 4%, second-half goals 0.41. Police: half-time lead 4%, second-half goals 0.00.
Goals by minute
Leopards: 0-15 (23 goals). Police: 0-15 (22 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 2.01 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Leopards have 16 wins this season and a superior goal output (36 goals) compared to Police (23 goals). At home they win 69% of matches, averaging 1.46 goals scored and conceding only 0.54 goals per game. Police create more chances on the road (11.36 shots and 4.36 on target per game) and have a higher away xG (1.56), but they convert far worse — 10% conversion rate and 33% of matches without a goal versus Leopards’ 19% conversion and 23% FTS. In the last 5 fixtures both teams scored 7 goals each, however Leopards have higher points per game in that period (2.4 vs 2.0) and a superior home goal differential (+12 compared to Police’s +3 away). Defensively the hosts also perform better in expected terms: Leopards concede 1.18 xG against at home versus 1.56 xG against for Police away, suggesting the visitors do create chances but are also more exposed. On this basis I favor a home win, although Police’s greater number of clear-cut chances keeps a realistic chance of a draw or an occasional away goal.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season-long indicators show a low propensity for BTTS: Leopards have BTTS at 29%, Police 33%, averaging 31% for the season, which is well below the league level of 44%. Leopards keep a clean sheet in 57% of matches, Police in 42%; assuming independence, the probability that both teams score is (1-0.57)*(1-0.42) ≈ 25%, which weakens the Goal/Goal scenario. On the other hand, xG indicates both teams create chances (xG 1.62 for Leopards and 1.56 for Police) and over the last 5 matches both average 1.4 goals (7 goals in the last 5) with BTTS at 40% in those five games, but Leopards show a divergence between xG 1.62 and actual 0.71 goals per game and a low conversion rate of 6% versus Police 10%, so Police are more clinical. Additionally, the league features 70% of matches with a clean sheet on one side and a low share of over 2.5 (7% for home teams), which together with low seasonal BTTS 29%/33% shifts the weight toward No Goal. Considering these figures (low seasonal BTTS ~31%, approximate 25% given clean sheets and xG vs goals discrepancies), I recommend a No Goal bet with an estimated probability of 65% versus 35% for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG- and form-based model indicates a moderately high goal potential: Leopards have xG_for 1.62 and xG_against 1.24, while Police have xG_for 1.56 and xG_against 1.56. Accounting for seasonal values and the last 5 matches (last5 xG_for: 1.29 for Leopards and 1.66 for Police; last5 xG_against: 1.32 and 1.41) I obtained a weighted goals forecast of ≈1.49 for the home side and ≈1.44 for the away side, total ≈2.93. At this expected total, a Poisson distribution yields roughly a 79% probability for Over 1.5, ≈56% for Over 2.5 and ≈34% for Over 3.5, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. The last 5 matches confirm an offensive uptick — both teams have scored 7 goals in five rounds (avg 1.4 per game each), while seasonal goals-per-game averages are 0.71 (Leopards) and 1.08 (Police). Despite season-long Over 2.5 rates of only 7% for the home team and 25% for the away team, the consistency of xG and current form supports backing Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is the away side leading at the break: Police lead at half-time in 50% of matches and score on average 1.0 goal before the break, whereas Leopards have a half-time goals average of 0.0, so the hosts rarely score in the first 45 minutes. After the full match the favorites are also the visitors — Police have a win rate of 50% versus Leopards’ 36%, better shooting efficiency 10% vs 6% and more shots on target 4.36 vs 3.86, which increases their chance of maintaining the lead. xG is virtually level (Leopards 1.62 vs Police 1.56), so the difference in quality of created chances is minimal, but Police’s efficiency (conversion and SOT volume) shifts the advantage in their favor. Although Leopards have a high draw rate this season (50%) and 57% of matches without conceding, taking into account the visitors’ HTPPG of 2.0 versus the hosts’ 0.8 and the first-half statistics, the strongest scenario is Police leading at half-time and Police winning at full-time, hence the selection HT/FT = '2/2'.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Leopards | Police | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Leopards is 50% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Leopards · 1.6 pts / match - Police
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Leopards is 56% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Leopards · 0.85 goals / match - Police
Police is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Leopards · 0.63 goals / match - Police
Leopards scores in 74% of matches (20 of 27 matches), while Police keeps a clean sheet in 52% (14 of 27 matches).
Police scores in 59% of matches (16 of 27 matches), while Leopards keeps a clean sheet in 52% (14 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Leopards
Over / Under - Police
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Leopards - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 4% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Police - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 4% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (23 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (22 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Leopards
Police
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Leopards | Liga | Police | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.00 | 2.01 | ▼ 1.48 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 37% | 43% | ▼ 30% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 33% | 33% | ▼ 15% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 52% | 36% | ▲ 52% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 19% | 21% | ▼ 7% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 30% | 23% | ▼ 4% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Leopards 0 - 1 - 0 Police. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Leopards vs Police?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Leopards 0:3 Police. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Leopards vs Police?
Leopards score 1.33 goals per game on average and Police 0.85. The Kenyan Premier League average is 2.01 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 37% of Leopards's matches and 30% of Police's.
What form are Leopards and Police in?
Over the last 5 games Leopards have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Police 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Leopards vs Police?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.