Levadiakos vs Aris: match statistics

I predict a Levadiakos win (1), primarily due to their home attacking edge. Levadiakos average 2.46 goals per home match, with 5.08 shots on target and 58% possession, whereas Aris average only 0.77 goals away, 3.08 shots on target and 51% possession. The efficiency gap is notable: home conversion rate is 19% versus 7% for Aris, and average xG is 1.48 vs 1.17, indicating higher-quality chances created by Levadiakos. However, Levadiakos are in poor form — only one win in the last 5 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 12 goals (2.4 conceded per game), reducing their points per game to 0.6 in this period. Considering home advantage, the clear scoring differential (2.46 vs 0.77) and lower share of scoreless home games (15% vs 31%), I assign Levadiakos a 60% chance, 20% for a draw and 20% for an Aris win.

I back No BTTS, as despite season BTTS rates of 46% and 46% (league 45%), recent form points against both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches Levadiakos has only 20% BTTS, scored 2 goals in 5 (0.4 avg) and conceded 12 (2.4 per game); Aris has 40% BTTS, also 2 goals in 5 (0.4) and 6 conceded (1.2 per game). Despite season xG of 1.69 for Levadiakos and 1.17 for Aris and average shots on target 4.54 vs 3.08, actual season goal averages are only 0.77 and 0.77 with low shot conversion rates of 5% and 7%, indicating significant finishing inefficiency. Additionally Levadiakos has 38% clean sheets, Aris 31%, while the league clean sheet trend is 63%, so combined with the low recent goal output the probability that at least one team fails to score increases. I assess BTTS at 30% for 'Yes' and 70% for 'No'.

I project 1.22 goals for Levadiakos and 1.00 for Aris, totaling 2.22 expected goals. Calculation is based on xG and seasonal scoring averages: matchup xG for the home side is (1.69 + 1.34)/2 = 1.515, for the away side (1.17 + 1.15)/2 = 1.16, then I applied a 60% weight to xG and 40% to the seasonal goals-scored average (0.77 for both teams). Despite Levadiakos’s relatively high xG, both teams convert chances poorly (conversion 5% for Levadiakos and 7% for Aris), which reduces expected goals versus raw xG. Additionally, Levadiakos conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 avg), and Aris has xG_for 1.77 in their last 5, which together raise the likelihood of at least two goals in the match—therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈65%), while Over 2.5 I estimate at ~38% and Over 3.5 at ~19%.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Levadiakos were level at the break in 62% of matches and Aris in 46%, yielding an average probability of roughly 54% for HT=X. A full-time draw also carries significant weight — Levadiakos finished matches level in 69% of games and Aris in 23%, averaging about a 46% chance for FT=X. The home side, however, creates more chances (xG 1.69 vs 1.17, 16.0 shots vs 10.69 and 4.54 shots on target vs 3.08), so when the score is level at the break the probability increases that Levadiakos will push for and can secure a win after the interval (hence X/1 17% vs X/2 12%). For these reasons the strongest signal is HT=X and FT=X (X/X 26%), with other plausible scenarios being X/1 17% and 1/X 12%. Leading at the break is uncommon for either side (home and away leads both 23%), and the home team’s shot conversion rate is only 5% versus 7% for the visitors, limiting their ability to produce a decisive turnaround.