Levante UD vs CA Osasuna: match statistics

I back a Levante win (1). At home Levante average 1.24 goals per match with an average xG of 1.40 and 3.65 shots on target, while Osasuna away manage only 0.65 goals per match, xG 1.05 and 2.53 shots on target. The visitors fail to score in 65% of away matches and have won just 12% of away games, whereas Levante win 29% of home matches and have been held goalless in only 29% of their home fixtures, indicating a home advantage in chance quality and finishing efficiency (9% vs 7% conversion). Over the last 5 matches Levante have averaged 1.4 points, Osasuna 1.0 point, and Levante’s home goal difference is -5 versus Osasuna’s -11 on the road, which further supports the hosts. Despite Osasuna’s higher league position (10th vs Levante 19th), their poor away efficiency justifies higher chances for Levante: 55% win, 25% draw and 20% away win.

I back BTTS - Yes at 65% because Levante score on average 1.71 goals per match this season (xG 1.57), while Osasuna concede on the road an average 1.29 goals (xG against 1.60), which strongly signals hosts will create chances and score. Levante average 13.76 shots per match, 5.12 on target, whereas Osasuna have 9.00 shots and 2.53 on target, yet Osasuna have averaged 1.2 goals in their last 5 matches and BTTS occurred in 80% of those fixtures. Offsetting this is Osasuna’s low seasonal away scoring efficiency — only 0.65 goals by season average and Osasuna’s seasonal BTTS at 35% — and the fact Levante have had BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches and have averaged 0.8 goals. Additionally Levante keep a clean sheet in 29% of home matches, while Osasuna have only 12% clean sheets away, indicating mixed defensive signals. Considering the league BTTS level of 56% and an average 2.7 goals per match, the balance of stats (xG, shots and last-5 form) favors the ‘Yes’ scenario 65% vs ‘No’ 35%.

The model estimates expected goals at 1.58 for Levante (home xG 1.57) and 1.16 for Osasuna (away xG 1.05), totaling 2.74 expected goals. Levante have 88% of home matches with over 1.5 goals this season, Osasuna 47% away, and the league averages 2.7 goals per game, supporting the Over 1.5 line. Levante average 13.76 shots (5.12 on target) versus Osasuna’s 9.0 (2.53 on target) and have a higher conversion rate 12% vs 7%, indicating superiority in chances created. From a Poisson distribution (λ=2.74) the probabilities are approximately Over 1.5 ≈76%, Over 2.5 ≈52% and Over 3.5 ≈29%, and seasonal stats confirm Levante’s tendency for high-scoring games (59% >2.5 for Levante vs 35% for Osasuna). Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — the high xG value, advantage in shots on target and the ~76% probability make Over 1.5 the recommended play.

Levante led at the break in 9 matches (53% of the season) and average 0.88 goals before half-time versus 0.24 for Osasuna, which strongly favors the home side at the interval. Levante’s advantage is supported by xG of 1.57 compared to the visitors’ 1.05 and a higher volume of chances: shots on target 5.12 vs 2.53 and total shots 13.76 vs 9.0. After the break the hosts are more active — Levante scores on average 0.82 goals in the second half compared to Osasuna’s 0.41, so a draw at half-time often turns into a home win. Additionally Levante earns on average 1.88 points per home match versus Osasuna’s 0.59 points per away match, and the hosts lose at half-time in only 6% of cases, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. For these reasons the most probable scenario is Levante leading at the break and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1), which I assign a 42% probability.