Levante UD vs RCD Mallorca: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Levante averages 1.33 goals and 14.67 shots per home match, with 4.11 shots on target and an average xG of 1.52, while Mallorca on the road averages just 0.89 goals, 8.83 shots and xG 1.05. Defensively Levante concedes 1.56 goals per home game and has a 22% clean sheet rate, whereas the visitors concede 1.89 away with only an 11% clean sheet rate. The form gap is clear: Levante have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, won 3 and average 2 points per game, while Mallorca have scored 5, won 1 and average 1 point per game. Considering the higher xG (1.52 vs 1.05), greater shot volume (14.67 vs 8.83) and Mallorca’s low away win rate (11% vs Levante’s 33% at home), I favour the hosts.

The "Both Teams To Score" scenario is more likely: Levante has a season BTTS rate of 72%, Mallorca 61%, versus the league average of 56%. Both teams regularly concede — Levante allows 1.17 goals per match on the season (1.8 in the last 5), Mallorca 1.89 on the season (1.4 in the last 5). In attack Levante generates xG 1.44 and scores 1.56 goals per match on average, while Mallorca has xG 1.05 and scores 0.89 goals away on the season, although in the last 5 Mallorca raised xG to 1.44 and scored 1.0 on average. Clean sheets are rare — Levante has 17% of matches without conceding, Mallorca only 11% — and the last 5 matches produced BTTS in 60% for Levante and 80% for Mallorca. Considering these figures, I estimate BTTS probability at 72% vs 28% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.

I select Over 1.5 as the primary option because both teams have 83% of their matches season-to-date with over 1.5 goals (Levante 83%, Mallorca 83%), while the league average is 2.69 goals per match. I calculate expected goals from xG: Levante attack 1.44 vs Mallorca defense 1.74 yields about 1.59 expected goals for Levante, while Mallorca attack 1.05 vs Levante defense 1.49 yields about 1.27 for Mallorca, for a total of ~2.86. Levante averages 12.39 shots and 4.78 on target with a conversion rate of 13%, and Mallorca 8.83 shots and 3.44 on target with a 10% conversion rate, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides; seasonally both teams score in 72% (Levante) and 61% (Mallorca) of their matches. Season-to-date Over 2.5 occurs in 56% of Levante’s matches and 72% of Mallorca’s (average ~64%), therefore I rate Over 2.5 at 64%/36%; Over 3.5 appears in only 22% of both teams’ matches, hence Under 3.5 has the edge at 78%.

Levante has a clear seasonal advantage: they average 1.56 goals per match versus Mallorca’s 0.89 and concede 1.17 instead of 1.89; the xG gap (1.44 to 1.05) and average shots (12.39 vs 8.83) confirm the home side’s dominance. At half-time however, the stats suggest a draw or low-scoring half: Levante averages 0.56 goals by the break versus Mallorca’s 0.44, and the hosts were level at the break in 39% of matches versus 28% for the visitors, which favors a draw at half-time. After the break the picture turns around – in the last five matches the hosts have totaled 2.0 second-half goals (vs 1.2 for Mallorca) and scored on average 1.0 goal in the second half compared to 0.4 for the visitors, collecting an average of 2.0 points per game in that period and winning 60% of second halves (visitors 0%), which indicates a strong chance for Levante to secure the turnaround after the interval. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Levante win at full-time (X/1); this is supported by season-long full-time effectiveness: Levante win 44% of matches versus Mallorca’s 11%.