Levante UD vs Sevilla FC: match statistics

I back Levante to win (1). The hosts have a 2-2-1 record in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 points per game, while Sevilla has won only 1 of their last 5 and averages 0.8 points; Levante scored 7 goals in those five fixtures versus Sevilla’s 5. At home Levante averages 13.81 shots per game (3.69 on target) with an xG of 1.43, while Sevilla away record is 11.4 shots (3.53 on target) with xG 1.25 — the hosts create more and better chances (13.81 vs 11.4, xG 1.43 vs 1.25). Sevilla holds an edge in possession (51% vs 44%) and has a higher shot conversion (11% vs 9%), but conceded 10 goals in their last 5 games versus 6 conceded by Levante and average 1.87 goals conceded away compared to Levante’s 1.63 conceded at home, indicating defensive instability from the visitors. Considering Levante’s superior recent form, advantage in chance creation and higher xG, I give the hosts the better probability, although their 31% share of home matches without scoring is a risk that limits that edge.

Both teams show clear BTTS tendencies: Levante 63% and Sevilla 60% this season versus a league average of 56%, and BTTS in the last 5 matches is also 60% for both, indicating a persistent goal-exchange trend. Season goal numbers confirm defensive issues — Levante scored 35 and conceded 50, Sevilla scored 39 and conceded 51, with clean sheets only in 13% and 20% of matches respectively (league contrast 48%). Chance-quality analysis shows Levante generates 1.32 xG with 1.15 xG against, Sevilla 1.25 xG with 1.37 xG against, so both sides create ~1.2–1.3 xG while allowing over 1.1 xG to opponents. In the last 5 matches Sevilla conceded on average 2.0 goals (10 conceded) and Levante 1.2 goals (6 conceded), while the share of matches over 2.5 goals and BTTS is 44% (Levante) and 53% (Sevilla), further increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Based on this, I pick BTTS - Yes as more likely and estimate its probability at about 72% versus 28% for No.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — Levante have 88% of matches with more than 1.5 goals, Sevilla 80%, averaging 84% for such games, therefore I back Over 1.5. Total xG is 1.32 for Levante and 1.25 for Sevilla, combined 2.57 xG, which exceeds 2.5 and also supports a scenario of at least 2 goals. Both teams have high BTTS rates: 63% (Levante) and 60% (Sevilla), while conceding many goals — 50 and 51 this season — which favors further scoring. Season Over 2.5 rates are 56% (Levante) and 60% (Sevilla), so I assess Over 2.5 at about 58%, whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely (25% and 33% → approx. 29%). On this basis the best and safest line to play is Over 1.5.

The most convincing signals point to Levante leading at half-time and the home side winning the match. Levante led at the break in 7 matches (44% of their games) while Sevilla led at half-time in only 1 match (7%); Levante average 0.75 goals by half-time versus 0.33 for Sevilla. Seasonal xG is 1.32 for Levante against 1.25 for Sevilla, and Sevilla concedes 1.87 goals per match on average compared to 1.44 conceded by Levante, giving the hosts both a defensive and offensive edge. In their last 5 matches Levante have won 40% of games (2 of 5) with a superior average points at half-time of 1.63 versus Sevilla’s 0.67, so recent form favors the hosts. Although both teams often score during matches (63% Levante and 60% Sevilla), the percentage of games with both teams scoring by half-time is low (25–27%), so the most likely scenario is 1/1 — Levante leading at the break and winning at full-time.