Levski Sofia vs Arda: match statistics

Levski is the clear favorite at home: they win 86% of home matches, score an average of 2.64 goals and concede only 0.64 per game, and across the season have 21 wins and 62 goals. Arda’s away numbers are markedly weaker — on the road they average 1.29 goals per game, 1.00 conceded, only 4.0 shots on target and as many as 50% of away matches without scoring, with a season tally of 11 wins and 32 goals. The quality-of-chances gap is confirmed by xG and shot metrics: Levski generates xG 2.21 at home with 17.64 shots and 7.36 on target, whereas Arda posts xG 1.26 away with 9.07 shots and 4.0 on target, giving the hosts nearly twice as many opportunities. Defensively the hosts also dominate — Levski has 50% clean sheets at home and xG against 0.91, while Arda records 43% clean sheets away and xG against 1.33, so the visitors are more often exposed to opponent chances. Although in the last 5 games both teams average 2 points per match and Arda scored 8 goals versus Levski’s 6, Levski’s season-long advantage in possession (65% vs 52%) and home statistics support backing the home win.

Seasonal BTTS rates for both teams are low: Levski 29% and Arda 29%, versus a league average of 44%. In the last 5 matches BTTS for both teams rose to 40%, but that still represents only 2 of 5 games with goals from both sides; Levski scored 6 goals (avg 1.2) and conceded 4 (0.8) in this period, while Arda scored 8 and conceded 3 (1.6 and 0.6). Home side advantage in xG and chance creation favors Levski: Levski xG_for 1.72 vs Arda 1.26, 13.64 shots vs 9.07 and 4.5 shots on target vs 4.0, yet Levski also has 43% clean sheets and have conceded only 21 goals all season. Arda posts a higher shot conversion (14% vs 7%), which gives them scoring potential, but fewer opportunities (9.07 shots) and a 29% seasonal BTTS limit their probability, while the league features as many as 70% clean sheets, further supporting a No Goal scenario. Considering low seasonal BTTS 29%/29%, 43% clean sheets for both and Levski’s defensive edge (only 21 goals conceded and an average 0.86 goals conceded per home match), I assign 65% to 'No' and 35% to 'Yes' (BTTS - No/BTTS - Yes).

To estimate expected goals I used xG and actual conversion rates: Levski has xG_for 1.72 and averages 1.00 home goals (conversion rate = 1.00/1.72 = 0.58), Arda has xG_for 1.26 and averages 1.29 away goals (conversion rate 1.29/1.26 = 1.02). The mean of hosts' xG (1.72) and xG conceded by Arda (1.33) yields 1.53; after applying the 0.58 conversion factor I forecast ≈0.88 goals for Levski. Similarly, the mean of Arda's xG and xG conceded by Levski is 1.20, multiplied by 1.02 gives ≈1.22 goals for Arda, total ≈2.10. A Poisson distribution with λ = 2.10 produces P(Over 1.5) ≈62%, P(Over 2.5) ≈35% and P(Over 3.5) ≈16%, which aligns with seasonal over rates: over 1.5 (57% for Levski and 64% for Arda) and over 2.5 (36% for both). Additionally, Levski averages 13.64 shots and 4.5 shots on target at home with a 7% conversion, while Arda averages 9.07 shots and 4.0 shots on target with a 14% conversion; in the last 5 matches Levski scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and Arda 8 goals (1.6 avg), which boosts the away scoring potential. Based on this I recommend backing Over 1.5, since the projected 2.10 goals and ≈62% probability provide the strongest signal compared to 35% for Over 2.5 and 16% for Over 3.5.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Levski have been level at the break in 50% of their matches this season, Arda in 57%, and in the last five fixtures Levski were level at half-time in 100% and Arda in 80%. After the break the home side hold the advantage — Levski average 1.64 points in second halves and win 43% of second halves, whereas Arda average 1.14 points and only 21% second-half wins. Additionally Levski create more chances: xG 1.72 and 13.64 shots per match versus Arda’s xG 1.26 and 9.07 shots, although seasonally Levski score on average 0.57 goals by half-time (0.0 in the last five matches), which explains the high probability of an HT draw. Therefore the safest scenario is a draw at the break and a home win (X/1), which I assign a 20% probability to; as alternatives I indicate 16% for 1/1 and 18% for X/X.