Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia: match statistics

I back the home win: Levski Sofia sit 1st, record 87% home wins and score 2.53 goals per home match, while CSKA 1948 average 1.69 goals per away game. The hosts create significantly more chances — on average 17.27 shots and 7.13 on target per home match with xG 2.18, compared to the visitors' 11.25 shots and 4.63 on target with xG 1.47, indicating both qualitative and quantitative superiority for Levski. Levski are also more solid defensively: they concede 0.6 goals per home match on average (xG against 0.9) and keep a clean sheet in 53% of games, whereas CSKA concede 0.94 away (xG against 1.31) and have 44% clean sheets. As a counterpoint, the visitors have better recent form — CSKA won 4 of their last 5 matches and average 2.4 points per game in that period, while Levski have 3 wins and 2 draws with an average of 2.2 points per game. Considering the superiority in possession (65% vs 53%), shot volume, xG (2.18 vs 1.47) and lower goals conceded, I estimate the probabilities as: home 62%, draw 20%, away 18%.

I lean towards BTTS - Yes with approximately 60% probability because both teams present genuine scoring potential: Levski score 1.67 goals at home on average, while CSKA score 1.69 away. In the last 5 matches Levski recorded BTTS in 80% of games versus CSKA's 40%, and season figures are 53% vs 44%, which together favor a both-teams-to-score scenario. xG also supports this conclusion — Levski have xG 1.56 with xG against 1.21, and CSKA xG 1.47 with xG against 1.31 — plus similar shots on target 4.67 vs 4.63. Counterarguments are CSKA’s higher clean sheet rate 44% versus Levski 33% and CSKA’s lower average goals conceded away 0.94 vs Levski’s 1.13 at home, which reduce BTTS likelihood. Considering this, a 60%/40% (Yes/No) split appears the most reasonable choice based on the 1.67/1.69 goals, 1.56/1.47 xG and 80% vs 40% in the last 5 matches.

The analysis points to Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — I estimate roughly a 77% probability of at least 2 goals. Expected goals were calculated as the average of attack and defense: Levski 1.44 (xG attack 1.56 vs CSKA defense 1.31), CSKA 1.34 (xG attack 1.47 vs Levski defense 1.21), total 2.78. Seasonal indicators confirm a goal-prone trend: Over 1.5 occurred in 67% of Levski’s matches and 75% of CSKA’s matches (average 71%), while Over 2.5 occurred in 53% and 63% (average 58%). In the last 5 games Levski average 1.8 goals, CSKA 2.0, and Over 2.5 appeared in 60% and 80% of those matches respectively, which raises the chance of at least 3 goals to about 53%. Given the combined xG of 2.78 and the clear seasonal percentages, I back the Over at the 1.5 line; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~53%), and Over 3.5 is weaker (~30%).

Halftime statistics favor CSKA 1948: the visitors led at the break in 9 matches (56%), while Levski did so in only 5 (33%), and the hosts had 60% of matches level at halftime. Seasonal first-half goal averages are similar (Levski 0.87 vs CSKA 0.88), but in the last 5 games the visitors scored 11 goals by halftime (2.2 HT average) versus 3 goals for the hosts (0.6 HT), indicating better guest form in the first half. After the break CSKA also perform stronger: average points gained after halftime are 1.69 for the visitors versus 1.47 for the hosts, and the visitors’ last-5 form is W L W W W (4 wins) compared to the hosts’ W D W D W (3 wins, 2 draws). Considering these figures, the strongest signal is CSKA leading at the break and the visitors winning the match (2/2) — I rate this at 32%, while alternatives such as draw/visitor win (X/2) at 14% or home win 1/1 at 12% carry less signal strength.