Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: match statistics

Levski Sofia top the home table and have won every match on their own turf, averaging 2.5 goals scored and conceding just 0.5 per game. The hosts create clearly more high-quality chances: their average xG stands at 2.67 compared with Lokomotiv’s 1.83 away from home, while they limit opponents to just 0.94 xG. Levski also dominate possession, recording 73% possession, 19.5 shots and 9 shots on target per match, whereas Lokomotiv average 0 goals away from home and have failed to score in 100% of such fixtures. The difference is further reflected in their current form: Levski have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals during that run, while Lokomotiv have only 2 wins over the same period. Given the hosts’ clear attacking advantage and the visitors’ poor finishing, a Levski Sofia victory is the most likely outcome.

The signal for both sides to score is supported by recent results: both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches. During this period, Levski averaged 2.0 goals per match and Lokomotiv 1.0, while each team conceded just 0.8 goals, indicating a realistic possibility of a 1:1 or higher-scoring draw. Despite a seasonal average of 0.0 goals scored, Lokomotiv generated a strong average xG of 1.83, registering 16 shots and 6 shots on target per match, while Levski’s defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.74. The hosts should also find the net, as their recent xG stands at 1.89, while Lokomotiv allowed opponents 2.01 xG. The main risk to the pick is that the visitors have failed to score in every away match so far this season, but their current attacking data clearly increases the chances of breaking that run. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Levski have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last five matches, while Lokomotiv have conceded 0.8 goals per game during the same period. The hosts created an average of 1.89 xG, whereas the visitors’ defence allowed opponents as much as 2.01 xG, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. Lokomotiv scored 1.0 goal per game in their last five outings, while Levski conceded 0.8, so the visitors’ contribution to the scoreline is also realistic despite their weaker current-season data. In Levski’s last five matches, the Over 2.5 goals line landed in 80% of cases, compared with a league average of 2.45 goals. However, the strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected 2.80 goals provides a clearer safety margin than Over 2.5.

Levski are in clearly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while Lokomotiv have won only 40% of their games during this period. The strongest argument for the hosts leading at the break comes from their first-half performances: Levski were ahead after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding just 0.2. Lokomotiv have not led at half-time in any of these matches, and in 40% of them they went into the break trailing; their average first-half goal tally is only 0.4. After the interval, Levski continue to average 1.0 goal, while Lokomotiv failed to score in the first half in 60% of their last matches, making 1/1 the most logical HT/FT scenario.