Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Levski sit 1st with 24 wins and 4 losses this season, while Ludogorets have 17 wins and 6 losses; hosts have scored 68 goals versus guests' 58. In the last 5 matches Levski have scored 8 goals, with 3 wins and 2 draws (PPG 2.2), whereas Ludogorets have only 2 goals, 0 wins and 4 losses in that period (PPG 0.2). At home Levski average 2.44 goals per game, xG 2.17 and only 0.56 goals conceded with 66% possession and 6.88 shots on target; visitors away average 1.81 goals, xG 1.87 and 0.75 conceded. Additionally, Levski have 13% of matches without scoring versus 31% for Ludogorets, and a home win rate of 88% which boosts the hosts' edge — I assess probabilities at 70% for Levski, 18% for a draw and 12% for the away side.

Seasonal stats favor a 'no' scenario: Levski have BTTS in 50% of matches, Ludogorets in 31%, and the league average is 44%. Home side scores and creates more — Levski's season xG is 2.25 vs guests' 1.87, while season goals per game are equal for both (1.81); Levski average 18.19 shots and 6.38 on target vs Ludogorets 14.44 and 5.19. In the last 5 matches Levski have 8 goals (1.6 avg) and xG 1.54, whereas Ludogorets only 2 goals (0.4 avg) and xG 1.41, so the visitors struggle with finishing. Additionally Ludogorets failed to score in 31% of their matches this season and have 56% clean sheets vs Levski's 50%, and season average goals conceded are 0.69 for Levski and 0.75 for Ludogorets, which reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Based on this I assign 62% probability to 'no' and 38% to 'yes' — top pick: 'no', as the visitors' 0.4 goals average in the last 5 and 31% of matches without a goal outweigh the home 50% BTTS rate.

xG analysis shows Levski has home xG 2.25 versus conceded away xG of Ludogorets 1.05, yielding expected goals for Levski ≈1.65. Ludogorets has away xG 1.87 versus conceded xG of Levski 0.94, giving its expected goals ≈1.40 and a combined expected total ≈3.05. A Poisson model with λ=3.05 gives probability of Over 1.5 around 81% (Under 19%), Over 2.5 around 59% (Under 41%) and Over 3.5 around 36% (Under 64%), which aligns with seasonal rates (Levski Over1.5 in 81% of matches, Ludogorets 63%). Additionally, Levski averages 18.19 shots per match and 6.38 shots on target with 10% conversion, while Ludogorets averages 14.44 shots and 5.19 shots on target with 13% conversion, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest data signal is to play Over 1.5 — the high expected total 3.05 and seasonal and last-5 form metrics (Levski 8 goals in last 5 matches vs Ludogorets 2) clearly favor Over 1.5.

At half-time both teams show low goal output: the home side average 0.63 goals by the break, the visitors also 0.63, and AVGHT is 1.13 (home) and 1.06 (away), which favors a draw at the break. Levski has a clear advantage in xG: home xG is 2.25 versus Ludogorets’ 1.87, with xG against 0.94 vs 1.05, meaning Levski’s efficiency is higher (xG difference ≈ +1.31 vs +0.82) and this gives them the edge after the break. The hosts average 18.19 shots and 6.38 on target versus 14.44 and 5.19 for the guests, and recent form over the last five matches is W D W W L (60% wins) for Levski versus L L L D L (0% wins) for Ludogorets, confirming better home form. The second half favors Levski – over05_2hg_percentage_home = 81% versus 63% for the visitors, and average second-half goals are 1.19 vs 1.19, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1).