Lexington vs Phoenix Rising: match statistics

Lexington has a clear home advantage profile: they win 56% of their home matches and score an average of 1.78 goals, while Phoenix Rising win just 22% of their away games and average 1.00 goal per match. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.56 compared with the visitors’ 1.07, and their advantage is also evident in shots on target per game: 4.56 to 2.56. Lexington’s home defence concedes an average of 1.33 goals, slightly fewer than Phoenix do away from home (1.44), while the hosts also keep a clean sheet in 44% of matches compared with 22% for their opponents. Recent form is not entirely one-sided, however, with Lexington collecting 7 points from five matches and Phoenix 5, although the hosts conceded as many as 10 goals during that period. Home advantage, a higher volume of chances created and Phoenix’s weaker away record all point towards a Lexington victory, although the draw remains a significant risk.

BTTS - Yes is more likely, as both teams have a season-long rate of matches with goals scored by both sides of 56%, slightly above the league average of 55%. The trend over the last five matches is even more favorable: Lexington recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while Phoenix Rising did so in as many as 80%, conceding an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals respectively. Lexington creates a high volume of chances at home, averaging 1.93 xG, 16.44 shots, and 6.78 shots on target per match, while Phoenix keeps a clean sheet in only 22% of games. The visitors have been weaker over the course of the season, but their recent xG has risen to 1.63, while Lexington’s defense has allowed an average of 1.61 xG across its last five matches. The biggest risk to this pick is Phoenix’s away scoring average of just 1.0 goal; however, their current attacking form and the defensive issues on both sides provide stronger support for the BTTS - Yes outcome.

Lexington creates significantly more chances: its average xG stands at 1.93, compared with the 1.37 xG conceded by Phoenix, while it also records 16.44 shots and 6.78 shots on target per match. Phoenix averages just 1.00 goal per game this season, but the hosts have conceded as many as 2.0 goals per match in their last five fixtures, with 1.61 xG allowed to opponents. At least two goals were scored in 89% of both teams’ matches, while over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of each team’s games across the last five rounds. The season-long percentage of matches finishing above 2.5 goals is 44% for both sides, making the 2.5 line more balanced than current form might suggest. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Lexington’s solid attacking potential and both teams’ recent defensive weaknesses should produce at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Lexington win, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches. Across the season, Lexington led at the break in 33% of matches, compared with just 11% for Phoenix Rising, but the hosts are clearly stronger over the full 90 minutes: they average 1.67 goals from an xG of 1.93, while the visitors score 1.00 goals from an xG of 1.07. Lexington’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, averaging 16.44 shots and 6.78 on target, compared with Phoenix’s 8.78 shots and 2.56 on target. After the break, the hosts average 1.11 goals, while as many as 67% of Phoenix’s second halves have ended level, supporting a turnaround in favour of the home side after an evenly balanced opening.