Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo: match statistics

Libertad are clear favorites: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals in the process, while Sportivo San Lorenzo have collected just 1 point and scored only 1 goal. At home, the hosts win 62% of their matches, average 1.92 goals, and register 5.69 shots on target per game. Away from home, the visitors lose as many as 71% of their matches, score just 0.57 goals per game, and fail to score in 50% of their appearances. Libertad’s superiority is also evident in chance quality: their average home xG stands at 1.57, compared with Sportivo San Lorenzo’s 1.17 away from home, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.72. The hosts concede an average of 1.00 goal at home, compared with 1.93 for the visitors away, further strengthening the prediction of a Libertad victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Sportivo San Lorenzo’s very poor recent attacking efficiency: the team has scored just 1 goal in its last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. Across the entire season, the visitors average 0.57 goals and have failed to score in 50% of their matches, creating a high risk that they will once again finish without a goal. Libertad are in good attacking form, scoring 10 goals in their last 5 appearances with an xG of 1.85, while San Lorenzo concede an average of 1.6 goals. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches, significantly more often than the visitors, who have done so in only 7% of fixtures, further supporting the scenario of a one-sided result. Season BTTS percentages stand at just 31% for Libertad and 43% for San Lorenzo, clearly below the league average of 53%.

Libertad are in excellent form: they have scored 10 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.0 per game, with an xG of 1.85. Sportivo San Lorenzo have scored just 1 goal over the same period, or 0.2 per match, while their average xG was only 1.05. Despite the hosts’ advantage, the seasonal profile remains relatively low-scoring, as matches involving both teams finished with fewer than 3.5 goals in 85% and 79% of cases, respectively. The visitors scored at least twice in a match in only 7% of games, making a controlled Libertad win without a significant attacking contribution from San Lorenzo the most likely scenario. The Under 3.5 goals line holds the edge, as even with the hosts expected to dominate, the projected total of 2.30 goals remains clearly below this threshold.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Libertad victory at full-time, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 62% of their matches, rising to 80% across their last five games. Sportivo San Lorenzo have not led at the break in any of their last five appearances; instead, they went into half-time trailing in 80% of cases, which reduces the credibility of scenarios involving an away lead. After the break, Libertad clearly improves: across their last five matches, they averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded just 0.4, while San Lorenzo managed only 0.2 goals per game. The difference is also reflected in their current full-match form: Libertad won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals, whereas the visitors failed to win any of theirs, losing 4 of 5 and averaging just 0.2 goals. A level start is further supported by the fact that the hosts score only 0.08 goals per match before half-time, while the visitors' second-half weakness should allow Libertad to turn the result in their favour.