Liefering vs Sturm Graz II: match statistics

Liefering have a slight edge: they sit 9th compared with Sturm Graz II in 13th, and have taken 7 points from their last five matches, while the visitors have collected 5. At home, the hosts score an average of 1.67 goals and register 4 shots on target per match, while Sturm average 1.33 goals and 2.67 shots on target away from home. The visitors’ defensive record also supports backing the hosts, as they concede an average of 3.33 goals away, although Liefering’s home xG is only 1.24 and does not point to dominance in chance creation. The risk is considerable: the hosts themselves concede 2.33 goals per home match, and both teams have shipped 12 goals in their last five games. Liefering to win is therefore the most likely single outcome, but their advantage is far from clear.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with goals at both ends: Liefering have done so in 75% of their games, while Sturm Graz II have in 67%, compared with the league average of 55%. Over their last 5 matches, the figure was 80% for each team, and both conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game during that period. Liefering score an average of 2.75 goals at home, while the visitors concede 3.33 away from home, making a home goal particularly likely. On the other hand, Sturm Graz II score an average of 1.33 goals away, while the hosts concede 2.0 at home, and neither team has yet kept a clean sheet in these circumstances. The risk to the BTTS - Yes pick is that the visitors failed to score in 33% of their away matches; however, the defensive data and recent results point towards both teams scoring.

All previous home matches for Liefering and away matches for Sturm Graz II have ended with at least 2 goals, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Liefering average 2.75 goals scored at home, while Sturm Graz II concede 3.33 on the road, which favours goals from the hosts. The visitors can also get on the scoresheet: they average 1.33 goals away from home, while the hosts concede 2.00 at home. Both teams’ last 5 matches have averaged 4.0 goals, although their season attacking xG figures of 1.51 and 1.19, respectively, suggest caution with higher lines. Therefore, despite the strong potential for goals, Over 1.5 has a clearer edge than Over 2.5 or 3.5.

Liefering average 2.75 goals in home matches, while Sturm Graz II concede 3.33 away from home, pointing to a home win. At half-time, the hosts score an average of 1.25 goals, while the visitors concede 1.67; additionally, Sturm Graz II were trailing at the break in 2 of their 3 away matches and did not lead at half-time in any of them. Liefering’s advantage looks even clearer after the break: they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, compared with 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded by the visitors. The xG figures also favour the hosts: they create chances worth an average of 1.51 expected goals, while their opponents allow chances worth 1.77. The 1/1 pick remains the strongest signal, although it calls for caution because Liefering were trailing at half-time in 2 of their 4 home matches, and the visitors averaged 2.2 goals in their last five games.