Liepāja vs Grobiņa: match statistics

Liepāja have a clear home advantage: they win 55% of their home matches, score an average of 1.82 goals there and concede just 1.00, while Grobiņa average only 0.54 goals per away game. The visitors have lost 54% of their away matches, have a -21 goal difference and allow opponents to score an average of 2.15 goals, all of which favors the hosts. The difference is also evident in chance creation: Liepāja average 5 shots on target from 11.18 attempts, while Grobiņa manage only 3.23 shots on target and have a 5% conversion rate. The visitors have failed to score in 46% of their away matches, whereas Liepāja have been held scoreless at home in just 18% of games. The hosts' recent form is not ideal, having won 2 of their last 5 matches, but Grobiņa have scored only 4 goals and conceded as many as 14 during this period, making a Liepāja victory the most likely outcome.

The seasonal BTTS rate stands at 38% for both teams, well below the league average of 56%, indicating frequent matches in which at least one team fails to score. Grobiņa averages just 0.54 goals per match and fails to score in 46% of its games, while its shot conversion rate is only 5%. Liepāja also struggles offensively, averaging 0.85 goals and drawing a blank in 54% of matches. Although the last five appearances produced higher xG figures—1.83 for Liepāja and 1.56 for Grobiņa—the visitors scored only 4 goals while conceding 14 during this period. Grobiņa’s weak defence could allow the hosts to win, but the limited attacking potential of both sides more strongly supports BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score.

Liepāja average 0.85 goals per game this season, but Grobiņa concede as many as 2.15 goals per match and have allowed 14 goals in their last five fixtures, raising the hosts’ projection to 1.45 goals. The visitors have an xG of 1.20 and average 3.23 shots on target, yet their season average of goals scored is just 0.54, so their projection remains limited to 1.10 goals. Despite both teams’ defensive weaknesses, Liepāja matches have finished under 3.5 goals in 69% of cases, while Grobiņa matches have done so in 77%; neither team averages even one goal per game across the season. Recent form increases the risk of three goals, as both teams have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5 matches, but a result with at least four goals would still require clearly above-average finishing. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5, supported by both teams’ season-long scoring profiles and the combined projection of 2.55 goals.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Liepāja were level at the break in 54% of their matches, compared with 46% for Grobiņa; both teams held a lead at half-time in only 15% of games. The visitors have failed to score before the break in each of their last five appearances, while the hosts have averaged 0.8 goals in this phase. After the interval, Liepāja’s advantage should increase, as Grobiņa concede an average of 1.23 goals in second halves and as many as 1.6 over their last five matches, compared with an average of 2.8 goals conceded per full match. The hosts have been more effective recently, scoring 1.2 goals per game compared with the visitors’ 0.8, while their xG stands at 1.17 against Grobiņa’s 1.20. Therefore, the visitors’ defensive weaknesses are the key argument in favour of the X/1 scenario.