Liepāja vs Ogre United: match statistics
Liepāja vs Ogre United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Liepāja play Ogre United in Virsliga (Latvia). The match date is 12 May 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Liepāja: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Ogre United: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Liepāja scores 1.27 and concedes 1.55 goals per match. Ogre United scores 0.91 and concedes 2.57. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Liepāja 55%, Ogre United 61%. Over 2.5: Liepāja 59%, Ogre United 61%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Liepāja has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.12. Liepāja: 12.4 shots per match, Ogre United: 10.0.
Match halves
Liepāja: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.68. Ogre United: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.61.
Goals by minute
Liepāja: 31-45+ (7 goals). Ogre United: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I back the home win: Liepāja (6th) has 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses this season with 10 goals scored, and at home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The decisive edge is defence — Ogre United concede 3.5 goals per away match and have 25 goals conceded overall this season, while Liepāja have 17 conceded; the visitors have no away wins and a 100% loss rate on the road. Offensively Liepāja average 3.2 shots on target per home game with a 12% conversion rate, whereas Ogre on the road average 2.5 shots on target, 0.5 goals per match and only a 7% conversion, and in 50% of away fixtures they fail to score. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 5 goals each, but Liepāja conceded 10 versus Ogre’s 16 conceded, indicating the visitors have been significantly worse defensively recently. Considering the home defensive superiority, better finishing quality and Ogre’s catastrophic away numbers, I assess the probabilities as: 72% Liepāja win, 18% draw and 10% Ogre win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Liepāja | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ogre United is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Liepāja · 1.2 pts / match - Ogre United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Liepāja is 40% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - Liepāja · 0.91 goals / match - Ogre United
Liepāja is 66% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.55 goals / match - Liepāja · 2.57 goals / match - Ogre United
Liepāja scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 4% (1 of 23 matches).
Ogre United scores in 65% of matches (15 of 23 matches), while Liepāja keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Liepāja
Over / Under — Ogre United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Liepāja is 137% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.23 pts / match - Liepāja · 0.52 pts / match - Ogre United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Liepāja - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ogre United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 13%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -8 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Liepāja
Ogre United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Liepāja | Liga | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.82 | 2.98 | ▲ 3.48 |
| Both teams scored | • 55% | 56% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 55% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 24% | ▼ 4% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 75% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 84% | ▲ 96% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Liepāja 2 - 0 - 0 Ogre United. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Liepāja vs Ogre United?
The Virsliga match finished Liepāja 4:1 Ogre United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Liepāja and Ogre United?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Liepāja won 2, Ogre United won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Liepāja vs Ogre United?
Liepāja score 1.27 goals per game on average and Ogre United 0.91. The Virsliga average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Liepāja's matches and 61% of Ogre United's.
What form are Liepāja and Ogre United in?
Over the last 5 games Liepāja have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Ogre United 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Liepāja vs Ogre United?
The statistical background for Liepāja vs Ogre United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.