Lille vs Auxerre: match statistics

I predict a Lille win (1): the hosts win 50% of home matches and score on average 1.5 goals per home game, while Auxerre win only 6% of away matches and average 0.88 goals on the road. Defensively Lille is superior — they concede 0.94 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 38% of games, whereas Auxerre concede 1.69 goals away and record clean sheets in only 6% of away matches. Chance quality also favors Lille: the hosts have home xG 1.73 with 14.94 shots and 4.88 on-target shots per match, while Auxerre away register xG 1.13 with 10.13 shots and 3.19 on-target shots. Form over the last five matches: Lille have 3 wins and 2 draws (2.2 points per match), while Auxerre have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 points per match), although Auxerre scored 9 goals in those five games versus Lille’s 7. Considering the difference in percentage of goalless games (19% for Lille vs 50% for Auxerre), average goals (1.5 vs 0.88) and xG (1.73 vs 1.13), I assign Lille a 70% chance to win, draw 18% and Auxerre win 12%.

I forecast a 60% probability of BTTS=no and 40% for BTTS=yes. Lille averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded at home, has a season BTTS rate of 35% and keeps a clean sheet in 41% of home matches; in the last 5 games the hosts scored 7 and conceded only 1 (0.2 per match). Auxerre away scores 0.88 and concedes 1.69 on average, has a season BTTS of 50% and only 6% clean sheets on the road, but in their last 5 matches the visitors scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and had 80% BTTS. xG shows a moderate attacking edge for Lille (1.3 xG vs 1.13 xG for Auxerre) with xG against 1.25 for Lille and 1.54 for Auxerre; in the last 5 matches Lille had xG against 0.75 vs 1.45 for Auxerre, supporting Lille's superior defense. Overall Lille’s lower season BTTS (35%) and very strong defensive form in the last 5 (only 1 goal conceded) outweigh Auxerre’s recent offensive uptick, therefore I select BTTS - No as the strongest signal.

The forecast combines seasonal data and the last 5 matches, yielding expected goals of 1.48 for Lille and 1.11 for Auxerre, total 2.59. Lille’s season xG is 1.30, while Auxerre concedes opponents’ xG of 1.54 per game; additionally Lille generated 1.61 xG and conceded on average 0.2 goals in their last 5 matches, reinforcing the home side’s form. Auxerre’s seasonal attacking xG is 1.13 and in the last 5 matches they scored 1.8 goals on average but conceded 1.4 goals in those five games (1.69 across the season), indicating vulnerability to goals. With an expected total of 2.59, a Poisson distribution estimates roughly Over 1.5 ≈ 73%, Over 2.5 ≈ 48% and Over 3.5 ≈ 26%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Lille has kept a clean sheet in 41% of home games, while Auxerre have only 6% clean sheets away, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals in this fixture.

Half-time statistics point to a high likelihood of a draw at the break: Lille recorded a draw at half-time in 8 matches (47%) while Auxerre did so in 10 matches (63%), with leads at the break occurring respectively 4 times (24%) and 2 times (13%). In the second half Lille scores on average 0.71 goals, while Auxerre only 0.25, and the goal difference in second halves is +4 for Lille versus -12 for Auxerre, suggesting the home side more often stages a turnaround after the break. Additionally, Lille generates more xG (1.30 vs 1.13) and more shots (11.47 vs 10.13) and has a better home points return (1.29 points per game and 35% wins) compared to Auxerre’s weaker away form (0.56 points per game and 6% wins), which increases the chance of Lille winning after half-time. Auxerre concedes on average 1.69 goals per game and has a low clean sheet rate (6%) this season, whereas Lille has 41% clean sheets, further boosting the probability of a home victory by full-time. Considering the 47–63% frequency of draws at half-time and Lille’s second-half advantage (0.71 vs 0.25 goals), the scenario of a draw at half-time and a Lille win at full-time (X/1) is the strongest signal.