Lille vs Le Havre: match statistics
Lille vs Le Havre: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lille played Le Havre in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Lille: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Le Havre: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lille scores 1.61 and concedes 1.10 goals per match. Le Havre scores 0.94 and concedes 1.35. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lille 39%, Le Havre 52%. Over 2.5: Lille 42%, Le Havre 35%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Lille has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.29. Lille: 13.6 shots per match, Le Havre: 11.4.
Match halves
Lille: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 1.16. Le Havre: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Lille: 76-90+ (23 goals). Le Havre: 61-75 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a Lille win (1) — hosts are 4th in the table versus Le Havre 14th; across the season Lille has 17 wins compared to Le Havre’s 6. Form: Lille scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches, with 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 points per game; Le Havre in their last 5 have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 10 goals and averaging 0.8 points per game. Chance creation at home: Lille averages 14.47 shots (4.53 on target), has a conversion rate of 11%, xG 1.67 and scores 1.53 goals per home game; Le Havre away averages 10.6 shots (3.47 on target), a 6% conversion, xG 1.22 and scores 0.6 goals per away game. Defensively Lille concedes 0.93 goals at home (xG against 1.01) and keeps a clean sheet in 40% of matches, whereas Le Havre concedes 1.67 away (xG against 1.65), has only 20% clean sheets and fails to score in 53% of away games. Based on these numbers I give Lille a 75% chance to win, draw 15% and Le Havre 10%, because the home side’s superiority in creating and converting chances and the fact Lille have conceded only 1 goal in their last 5 matches clearly favors the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The case for 'No' is supported by Lille's defensive form: they have conceded 0.2 goals on average in the last 5 matches (1 goal in 5) and hold a run 'wwwdw', while their season concession rate is 1.06 goals per match. Le Havre score only 0.6 goals per away match on the season, although they have 9 goals in the last 5 (1.8 avg), indicating a short-term offensive uptick with high instability. Seasonal BTTS rates are 63% for Lille and 40% for Le Havre, but the last 5 matches show only 20% BTTS for Lille versus 100% for Le Havre, producing mixed signals — Lille's solid defense is decisive. xG indicates moderate goal potential: Lille xG_for 1.37 vs Le Havre xG_for 1.22, with xG_against Lille 1.29 and Le Havre 1.65; considering actual concessions of 0.2 goals in Lille's last 5 and 0.6 avg away for Le Havre, a match without BTTS is more likely. Therefore I estimate 38% for 'Yes' and 62% for 'No', selecting 'No' as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects expected goals of 1.51 for Lille and 1.26 for Le Havre (total 2.77), calculated as an average of attack and defense (Lille xG_for 1.37 vs Le Havre xG_against 1.65; Le Havre xG_for 1.22 vs Lille xG_against 1.29). Season-long metrics show Over 1.5 occurred in 63% of Lille’s home matches and 60% of Le Havre’s away games, and a simple Poisson model with lambda=2.77 yields roughly a 76% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5). Over 2.5 is less certain: seasonally Lille have 44% of matches above 2.5 and Le Havre 27%, however in the last 5 matches Lille have Over 2.5 in 60% and Le Havre in 40%, which combined gives an estimated ~52% chance for Over 2.5. Lille averages 12.13 shots and 4.0 on target with a 10% conversion rate, versus Le Havre’s 10.6 shots and 6% conversion; Lille have scored 10 and conceded 1 in the last 5 matches while Le Havre have conceded 10, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Lille victory at full-time (X/1), which I assign a 37% probability. Lille has a clear form advantage: in their last 5 matches the home side won 80% of games and led at the break in 60% of cases, whereas Le Havre have not won any of their last 5 matches (0%) and led at the break in only 20%. Historically, however, draws at the break are common (Lille were level at half-time in 56% of matches, Le Havre in 53%) and the seasonal average goals by half are 0.56 for Lille versus 0.2 for Le Havre, which supports the draw-by-45-minutes scenario. After the break Lille appears more effective: higher xG 1.37 vs 1.22, better shot conversion 10% vs 6%, and more points gained in second halves (on average 1.81 pts vs 0.8 pts; in the last 5 matches respectively 2.2 vs 1.2), so Lille should decide the match. Additionally, Le Havre concede as many as 7 goals in the 76th–90th minute period this season versus 2 conceded by Lille in the same period, therefore the turnaround after the break in favor of the home team is the strongest scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lille is 225% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Lille · 0.8 pts / match - Le Havre
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lille is 71% better for: goals scored per match.
1.61 goals / match - Lille · 0.94 goals / match - Le Havre
Lille is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.1 goals / match - Lille · 1.35 goals / match - Le Havre
Lille scores in 71% of matches (22 of 31 matches), while Le Havre keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 31 matches).
Le Havre scores in 58% of matches (18 of 31 matches), while Lille keeps a clean sheet in 39% (12 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lille
Over / Under - Le Havre
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lille is 73% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.45 pts / match - Lille · 0.84 pts / match - Le Havre
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lille - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 55%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Le Havre - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (23 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +17 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lille
Le Havre
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Lille | Liga | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.71 | 2.83 | ▼ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 51% | • 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 53% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 29% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 70% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 78% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Lille 1 - 0 - 0 Le Havre. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lille vs Le Havre?
The Ligue 1 match finished Lille 1:1 Le Havre. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille score 1.61 goals per game on average and Le Havre 0.94. The Ligue 1 average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Lille's matches and 52% of Le Havre's.
What form are Lille and Le Havre in?
Over the last 5 games Lille have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Le Havre 0-4-1 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lille vs Le Havre?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Lille vs Le Havre: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.