Lille vs Nantes: match statistics
Lille clearly dominates this encounter, sitting 5th in the table with a solid record of 11 wins this season, while Nantes is in the precarious 17th position with only 4 victories. The hosts display impressive home form with a 55% win rate and a positive +5 goal difference at home, scoring an average of 1.64 goals per game while conceding just 1.18. Nantes has a disastrous away form with a 55% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.64 goals and scoring only 0.91 per match, with a negative -8 goal difference. xG statistics also favor Lille (1.75 xG For vs 1.14 xG Against in home matches), while Nantes has a negative xG differential away (1.03 vs 1.77). Recent form over the last 5 matches confirms the hosts' superiority (1.6 PPG) over the visitors (0.6 PPG), making a Lille victory the most likely scenario.
Lille vs Nantes: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lille played Nantes in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 1 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Lille: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Nantes: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lille scores 1.57 and concedes 1.35 goals per match. Nantes scores 0.96 and concedes 1.74. League average: 2.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lille 39%, Nantes 52%. Over 2.5: Lille 39%, Nantes 48%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Lille has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.11. Lille: 14.6 shots per match, Nantes: 10.5.
Match halves
Lille: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.13. Nantes: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.39.
Goals by minute
Lille: 76-90+ (20 goals). Nantes: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.80 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Lille clearly dominates this encounter, sitting 5th in the table with a solid record of 11 wins this season, while Nantes is in the precarious 17th position with only 4 victories. The hosts display impressive home form with a 55% win rate and a positive +5 goal difference at home, scoring an average of 1.64 goals per game while conceding just 1.18. Nantes has a disastrous away form with a 55% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.64 goals and scoring only 0.91 per match, with a negative -8 goal difference. xG statistics also favor Lille (1.75 xG For vs 1.14 xG Against in home matches), while Nantes has a negative xG differential away (1.03 vs 1.77). Recent form over the last 5 matches confirms the hosts' superiority (1.6 PPG) over the visitors (0.6 PPG), making a Lille victory the most likely scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lille | Nantes | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lille is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Lille · 0.6 pts / match - Nantes
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lille is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Lille · 0.96 goals / match - Nantes
Lille is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.35 goals / match - Lille · 1.74 goals / match - Nantes
Lille scores in 65% of matches (15 of 23 matches), while Nantes keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 23 matches).
Nantes scores in 65% of matches (15 of 23 matches), while Lille keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lille
Over / Under - Nantes
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lille is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - Lille · 1.13 pts / match - Nantes
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lille - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nantes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +15 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lille
Nantes
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Lille | Liga | Nantes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.91 | 2.80 | • 2.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 49% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 39% | 51% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | • 30% | 29% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 72% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 77% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Lille 1 - 0 - 0 Nantes. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lille vs Nantes?
The Ligue 1 match finished Lille 1:0 Nantes. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Lille vs Nantes?
Lille score 1.57 goals per game on average and Nantes 0.96. The Ligue 1 average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Lille's matches and 52% of Nantes's.
What form are Lille and Nantes in?
Over the last 5 games Lille have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Nantes 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lille vs Nantes?
The statistical background for Lille vs Nantes — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.