Lillestrøm vs Rosenborg: match statistics

Lillestrøm sit higher in the table, in 4th place compared with Rosenborg’s 10th, while they win 57% of their home matches and score an average of 2.00 goals per game. Rosenborg have won only 14% of their away matches, lost 71% of them, and failed to score in as many as 71%, which significantly limits their chances. The hosts create slightly better-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.35 compared with the visitors’ 1.27 away from home, while Rosenborg’s defence allows an average xG of 1.75. However, the visitors’ form in their last five matches is promising, as they have scored 12 goals and won 3 games, so an evenly contested match cannot be ruled out. Despite Lillestrøm’s weaker recent results, home advantage and Rosenborg’s clearly poor away figures point to a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Rosenborg’s very low seasonal frequency of both teams scoring, at just 14%, compared with 55% for the league as a whole. Rosenborg averages only 0.71 goals away from home and failed to score in 71% of matches, while Lillestrøm keeps a clean sheet in 38% of games. The hosts are clearly more dangerous in attack, scoring an average of 2.00 goals with an xG of 1.64, while the visitors’ defence concedes an average of 1.71 goals and allows opponents an xG of 1.75, making a Lillestrøm win to nil a realistic scenario. The last five matches provide some arguments for a Rosenborg goal, as they scored 2.4 goals per game, but BTTS occurred in only 20% of their matches during this period, while Lillestrøm scored just 1.0 goal per game. Overall, it is more likely that at least one team, particularly Rosenborg, will fail to score.

Lillestrøm score an average of 2.00 goals per home game, while Rosenborg concede as many as 1.71 goals away from home, clearly supporting the hosts’ goal tally. The chance-quality profile also points to an open game: Lillestrøm’s average xG is 1.64, while Rosenborg create chances worth 1.27 xG and have recorded as much as 1.83 xG across their last five matches. Both teams have struggled defensively in their five most recent outings, with Lillestrøm conceding 9 goals and Rosenborg 8, while the visitors have scored 12. At least two goals were scored in 100% of Lillestrøm’s matches and 86% of Rosenborg’s, making Over 1.5 a clearly safer signal than the more volatile 2.5 line. The projected total of 2.95 goals also leaves a realistic chance of three goals, but the strongest statistical edge is found with Over 1.5.

Rosenborg are showing significantly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Lillestrøm have lost 3 of 5. The visitors were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches and averaged 1.0 goals before half-time, whereas the hosts were trailing at half-time in 60% of their games over the same period and scored just 0.2 goals. Seasonal home data favour Lillestrøm, who average 2.0 goals per match at home, but their recent defence has conceded 1.8 goals per game, while Rosenborg are currently scoring 2.4. The scenario of the visitors taking the lead before half-time and maintaining it until the end is further supported by their second-half output: over their last five matches, they averaged 1.4 goals after the break, compared with 0.8 for Lillestrøm.