Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08: match statistics
Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lillestrøm played Sarpsborg 08 in Eliteserien (Norway). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Lillestrøm: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Sarpsborg 08: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lillestrøm scores 1.50 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Sarpsborg 08 scores 0.83 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.92 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lillestrøm 33%, Sarpsborg 08 50%. Over 2.5: Lillestrøm 33%, Sarpsborg 08 17%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Lillestrøm has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.44. Lillestrøm: 13.5 shots per match, Sarpsborg 08: 11.7.
Match halves
Lillestrøm: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 1.00. Sarpsborg 08: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.00.
Goals by minute
Lillestrøm: 76-90+ (3 goals). Sarpsborg 08: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eliteserien: 2.92 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Lillestrøm are the favorites: they sit 4th in the table versus Sarpsborg’s 13th and have scored 9 goals while conceding 4 this season, whereas Sarpsborg have 5 goals and 6 conceded. The home side’s form is superior — in the last 5 matches Lillestrøm have scored 6 goals and recorded 3 wins in 5 (sequence 'wwdwl'), averaging 2.0 points per game, while Sarpsborg have 3 goals, 0 wins in their last 5 and average 0.4 points. In terms of quality of chances xG are similar: Lillestrøm have 1.32 xG in home matches versus Sarpsborg’s 1.28 xG on the road, but the visitors concede 1.59 xG against them away compared to the hosts’ 1.37 xG, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for Sarpsborg to clear chances. Lillestrøm average 11 shots and 3 on target per home game with a 14% conversion, yielding 1.5 goals per game, while Sarpsborg average 9.67 shots and 4.33 on target with a 10% conversion and 1.0 goal on the road. The key advantages for Lillestrøm are the higher league position, markedly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.4 points per game) and superior shot efficiency (14% vs 10%), therefore I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Lillestrøm at home has a season BTTS rate of 67% and 0% clean sheets, meaning they have conceded at least one goal in every home match this season. Sarpsborg 08 averages 1.0 goals scored away, and their last 5 matches show BTTS at 60% with 1.2 goals conceded on average in those five fixtures (6 goals conceded in last 5). Lillestrøm generates xG 1.59 at home with 13.67 shots and 5.0 shots on target, although their actual goals average is 0.67 with shot conversion around 5%, indicating they create chances and have scoring potential. Sarpsborg’s defense concedes xG 1.59 away and concedes 1.0 goals away on the season, so the combination of Lillestrøm’s lack of clean sheets and the visitors’ ability to score increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering the hosts’ season BTTS 67% vs guests 33%, the league average BTTS 50% and recent form, I assign the BTTS - Yes scenario a 65% probability and 35% against.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Direct xG comparison yields a baseline of ~3.04 expected goals in the match (Lillestrøm xG_for 1.59, Sarpsborg effective xG_for in this matchup ~1.45). However, real finishing reduces the forecast: Lillestrøm averages 13.67 shots with a 5% conversion rate and has a season goals average of 0.67 versus xG 1.59 (i.e. converting ~42% of their xG), while Sarpsborg averages 9.67 shots with 10% conversion and has a season average of 1.00 with xG 1.28 (~78% conversion). After scaling the baseline xG by actual finishing rates I project about 0.67 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.13 for Sarpsborg, totaling ~1.80 goals. Historically Over 1.5 occurs for both teams in 67% of matches (hence I assess Over 1.5 at ~70%), whereas Over 2.5 occurs for Lillestrøm in 0% and for Sarpsborg in 33% this season and only 20% in the last 5 matches, which is a strong signal for Under 2.5 (I estimate 75%). Therefore I recommend betting the Under 2.5 line as the strongest signal from the data.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I predict a Half-Time/Full-Time outcome: draw at the break and Lillestrøm to win (X/1). The home side were level at half-time in 67% of their home matches and have a half-time goals average of 0.67 versus Sarpsborg’s 1.00 (scoredAVGHT_home 0.67 vs scoredAVGHT_away 1.0), indicating frequent low-scoring draws in the first 45 minutes. In the second half the case for Lillestrøm is stronger: in their last five matches they have a 60% win rate and average 2.0 points per game, while Sarpsborg have a 0% win rate and 0.4 points (last5_winPercentage_overall_home 60, last5_winPercentage_overall_away 0; last5_seasonPPG_overall_home 2.0 vs 0.4). Additionally the hosts create more chances and have higher xG: 13.67 shots and xG 1.59 (5.0 shots on target) versus 9.67 shots and xG 1.28 (4.33 on target) for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of scoring the decisive goal after the break. From these figures the strongest signal is therefore a draw at the break followed by a turnaround in favor of Lillestrøm in the second half.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lillestrøm | Sarpsborg 08 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lillestrøm is 400% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Lillestrøm · 0.4 pts / match - Sarpsborg 08
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lillestrøm is 81% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Lillestrøm · 0.83 goals / match - Sarpsborg 08
Lillestrøm is 49% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Lillestrøm · 1 goals / match - Sarpsborg 08
Lillestrøm scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Sarpsborg 08 keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
Sarpsborg 08 scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Lillestrøm keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lillestrøm
Over / Under - Sarpsborg 08
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sarpsborg 08 is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.17 pts / match - Lillestrøm · 1.5 pts / match - Sarpsborg 08
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lillestrøm - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sarpsborg 08 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lillestrøm
Sarpsborg 08
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eliteserien).
Teams vs league
| Lillestrøm | Liga | Sarpsborg 08 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.17 | 2.92 | ▼ 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 51% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 53% | ▼ 17% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 26% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 78% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 76% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Lillestrøm 0 - 1 - 1 Sarpsborg 08. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08?
The Eliteserien match finished Lillestrøm 4:0 Sarpsborg 08. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrøm and Sarpsborg 08?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Lillestrøm won 0, Sarpsborg 08 won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08?
Lillestrøm score 1.50 goals per game on average and Sarpsborg 08 0.83. The Eliteserien average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Lillestrøm's matches and 50% of Sarpsborg 08's.
What form are Lillestrøm and Sarpsborg 08 in?
Over the last 5 games Lillestrøm have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Sarpsborg 08 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.