Limavady United vs Ballymena United: match statistics

Ballymena United have a slight edge: they average 1.67 goals per away match compared with Limavady United’s 1.00 at home, while the hosts concede an average of 1.40 goals on their own ground. The visitors have failed to score in none of their away matches, although their average xG is only 1.07, suggesting a level of finishing that may be difficult to sustain. Limavady have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 8 goals in that run, so their current form narrows Ballymena’s advantage, with the visitors having won twice over the same period. However, Ballymena also have the better defensive record for the season, conceding 11 goals to the hosts’ 13. Since Limavady have lost 60% of their home matches, the pick is a Ballymena win, although with both attacks posting closely matched average xG figures of 1.04 and 1.07, a draw remains a realistic possibility.

In the last 5 matches, both teams scored in 60% of games, which supports a BTTS - Yes pick. Ballymena average 1.67 goals per match and have not failed to score in any of their matches, while Limavady concede an average of 1.0 goal. The home side score an average of 1.0 goal, and the visitors concede 1.33; additionally, Ballymena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. However, caution is warranted: Limavady have recorded BTTS in only 33% of matches, and their average xG is 0.96. The case for BTTS - Yes is therefore marginal, but the teams’ recent form and the visitors’ consistent scoring record outweigh the risk that at least one side fails to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all of Limavady United’s matches to date and 67% of Ballymena United’s games have stayed below this line. Although the last five matches have averaged 2.6 goals for the hosts and 2.4 for the visitors, these figures still point more towards a total below four goals. The hosts average 0.96 xG and the visitors 1.07 xG, supporting a more cautious forecast than the goals-scored averages alone, which stand at 1.00 and 1.67 respectively. The 2.5 line is less convincing, as it was exceeded in 60% of Limavady’s last five matches but only 20% of Ballymena’s corresponding games. The projected total of 2.50 goals therefore gives a clearer edge to Under 3.5 than to either side of the 2.5 line.

The strongest case for a draw at half-time is that all three of Limavady’s home matches so far have been goalless after 45 minutes, while Ballymena were level at the break in four of their last five games. After the interval, the balance shifts in favour of the visitors: they have won the second half three times in their last five matches, while the hosts have not won it at all. Over that period, Ballymena averaged 1.2 goals after half-time, compared with 0.4 for Limavady, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will decide the match in the second half. However, the X/2 pick is not a certainty, as Limavady have won three of their last five matches and led at the break in three of them.