Limavady United vs Carrick Rangers: match statistics

Carrick Rangers head into the match from a clearly stronger position in the league, sitting 4th compared with Limavady United’s 10th place. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals during that run, while the hosts have recorded 2 victories and 7 goals over the same period. Carrick have also averaged 1.8 points per game across their last five appearances, more than Limavady’s 1.4. Limavady have conceded just 4 goals in their last five matches, which could keep the game closely contested, but Carrick began the current season with a 1:0 victory and a clean sheet. The visitors’ advantage in the standings, recent attacking efficiency and stronger current points return all point towards a Carrick Rangers win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Limavady United recorded both teams scoring in only 20% of their last 5 matches, compared with 60% for Carrick Rangers. The hosts conceded just 0.8 goals per game during this period, while their average xG against was only 0.65, limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net with confidence. Carrick Rangers did average 2.0 goals across their last 5 appearances, but Limavady have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches this season and conceded only 0.66 xG per game. Additionally, the league BTTS rate stands at just 40%, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score the more likely outcome.

Seasonal data is very limited, so greater weight should be placed on recent results: Carrick Rangers averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last five matches, while Limavady United averaged 1.4. However, the visitors conceded 1.6 goals per game, compared with 0.8 for the hosts, which supports a scenario featuring at least two goals. In Carrick Rangers’ last five matches, as many as 80% went over 2.5 goals, but the figure for Limavady is only 20%, meaning Over 2.5 does not offer sufficient value. The combined projected xG of around 2.40, together with the league average of 2.6 goals, supports Over 1.5 as the safest choice. The Over 1.5 line has an advantage because it requires only two goals, with the visitors showing good attacking form and Carrick Rangers’ defence appearing vulnerable recently.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Carrick Rangers win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their recent matches, compared with 50% for Limavady United. Carrick averaged 0.8 goals before half-time, versus just 0.25 for the hosts, and recorded a first-half goal difference of +1. After the interval, the visitors’ attacking advantage becomes even more pronounced: they averaged 1.2 goals in the second half, while Limavady managed only 0.25, and Carrick’s matches averaged 2.2 goals during that period. Across their last five matches, Carrick won 60% of their games and averaged 2.0 goals per match, compared with Limavady’s 1.4, further supporting the forecast of a late turnaround in the visitors’ favour.