Limavady United vs Crusaders: match statistics

Limavady United have a clear form advantage: they have taken 8 points and scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, while Crusaders have lost all 5 of theirs, scoring just 3 goals and conceding 19. At home, the hosts average 1.33 goals and 4 shots on target per match, while the visitors average 0.83 goals and 2.5 shots on target away from home. The quality of chances created also favours Limavady: their home xG stands at 1.15, compared with Crusaders' away xG of 0.91. The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home and are yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, boosting the hosts' chances of victory. However, Limavady themselves concede 1.5 goals per home match, so an upset cannot be entirely ruled out.

The biggest obstacle to BTTS - Yes is Crusaders’ finishing: they have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, with an xG of 0.88. Limavady United conceded an average of 1.8 goals over that period, giving the visitors a chance to score, but Crusaders’ recent attacking form offers little reason to expect them to do so. The hosts have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, while Crusaders have conceded 19, which makes a Limavady goal considerably more likely. Season-long BTTS rates are 57% for the hosts and 67% for the visitors, but BTTS - Yes has landed in only 40% of Crusaders’ last 5 matches. Therefore, it is marginally more likely that at least one team—Crusaders in particular—will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 100% of Limavady United matches and 83% of Crusaders’ games. The hosts average 1.57 goals scored, while the visitors concede 2.33; in their last five matches, Crusaders have conceded as many as 3.8 goals per game. The risk of a low-scoring result is also reduced by the fact that Limavady concede an average of 2.0 goals, although Crusaders score just 0.83 goals per match. Over 2.5 also has a strong case, having landed in 100% of the hosts’ matches and 83% of the visitors’ games, but the attacks’ average xG—0.92 and 0.91, respectively—supports a more cautious pick. Therefore, with a forecast of 2.98 total goals, Over 1.5 is the stronger option, as it does not require both teams to maintain a high conversion rate.

Limavady United have won 57% of their matches, compared with just 17% for Crusaders; the visitors have also lost all of their last five games, conceding an average of 3.8 goals per match. The hosts led at the break in 3 of their 7 matches, while Crusaders were trailing at half-time in 4 of their last 5, pointing to an early advantage for Limavady. After the break, the visitors have recently conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game, while the hosts have scored 1.2 goals in that half, giving the scenario in which Limavady hold on to their lead strong foundations. Limavady’s defence, which concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game this season, is a risk; however, Crusaders’ poor form makes 1/1 the most likely HT/FT pick.