Lincoln City vs AFC Wimbledon: match statistics
Lincoln City vs AFC Wimbledon: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lincoln City played AFC Wimbledon in EFL League One (England). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Lincoln City: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. AFC Wimbledon: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lincoln City scores 1.90 and concedes 0.87 goals per match. AFC Wimbledon scores 1.26 and concedes 1.49. League average: 2.60 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lincoln City 49%, AFC Wimbledon 51%. Over 2.5: Lincoln City 54%, AFC Wimbledon 51%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Lincoln City has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.24. Lincoln City: 12.6 shots per match, AFC Wimbledon: 11.0.
Match halves
Lincoln City: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 0.92. AFC Wimbledon: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Lincoln City: 31-45+ (17 goals). AFC Wimbledon: 61-75 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.60 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Lincoln City holds a clear advantage: at home they win 75% of matches, score an average of 2.3 goals per game and concede only 0.8, with a home goal difference of +30. In the last 5 matches Lincoln scored 11 goals and won 4 times; over that period their points average is 2.6, while AFC Wimbledon have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, 7 goals scored and an average of 0.8 points per game. In terms of chance quality, the hosts average 14.5 shots per game of which 6 are on target and have an xG of 1.67, whereas the visitors register 9.85 shots, 3.05 on target and an xG of 1.15. Defensively the gap is notable: Wimbledon concede on average 1.95 goals away and have 35% of matches without scoring, while Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 35% of home games with only 5% of matches without scoring. Considering form, superiority in shots and better xG, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The projection favors BTTS - Yes. AFC Wimbledon posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 55% and 60% in the last 5 matches, conceding on average 1.95 goals this season and 2.0 in the last 5, with only 10% clean sheets expected. Lincoln City has a seasonal BTTS of 47% (40% in the last 5) but averaged 2.2 goals (11 goals) in that period and have 74 goals scored this season with xG 1.34 seasonally and 1.7 in the last 5, making them a genuine source of goals. Conversely, Wimbledon have 49 goals scored this season and average 1.25 goals away, while their defense allows many chances (xG against 1.49 seasonally and 2.0 in the last 5), increasing the likelihood they will concede. Shot metrics support this view: Lincoln averages 12.16 shots and 3.63 on target per match versus Wimbledon’s 9.85 and 3.05. The league BTTS is 52%, so I assign a 62% probability to Yes and 38% to No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I assess that the home side will generate around 1.42 expected goals: xG_for Lincoln = 1.34 and xG_against AFC Wimbledon = 1.49, so the average (1.34+1.49)/2 = 1.42. For the away team estimated xG is about 1.18, calculated as (xG_for Wimbledon 1.15 + xG_against Lincoln 1.20)/2 = 1.18, giving a combined 2.60 xG. Season stats show Lincoln matches exceeded 1.5 goals in 58% of cases and Wimbledon matches in 80%, while Over 2.5 occurred for them in 37% and 65% of fixtures respectively; in the last 5 games both teams had 60% of matches over 2.5. Additionally Lincoln scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6), while Wimbledon scored 7 (1.4) and conceded 10 (2.0), which raises the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 81%), with Over 2.5 rated at 58% and Over 3.5 at about 30%; I back the over side on the 1.5 line as the best pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The hosts led at the break in 42% of their matches; at half-time they average 0.63 goals scored and concede only 0.26, while AFC Wimbledon average 0.55 goals scored at half-time and concede 0.85. Over 90 minutes Lincoln have higher xG (1.34 vs 1.15), more shots (12.16 vs 9.85) and more shots on target (3.63 vs 3.05), indicating an advantage in chance creation. In the last 5 matches the hosts have won 4 of 5 (80%) and the visitors only 1 of 5 (20%), and the hosts have higher points per game (1.47 vs 1.10), which strengthens the likelihood of them holding a lead. Additionally the visitors concede an average of 1.95 goals per game and have higher xG against (1.49 vs 1.20), so the most likely scenario is the hosts to lead at the break and to win at full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lincoln City | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lincoln City is 225% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Lincoln City · 0.8 pts / match - AFC Wimbledon
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lincoln City is 51% better for: goals scored per match.
1.9 goals / match - Lincoln City · 1.26 goals / match - AFC Wimbledon
Lincoln City is 71% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.87 goals / match - Lincoln City · 1.49 goals / match - AFC Wimbledon
Lincoln City scores in 87% of matches (34 of 39 matches), while AFC Wimbledon keeps a clean sheet in 18% (7 of 39 matches).
AFC Wimbledon scores in 64% of matches (25 of 39 matches), while Lincoln City keeps a clean sheet in 41% (16 of 39 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lincoln City
Over / Under - AFC Wimbledon
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lincoln City is 68% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.23 pts / match - Lincoln City · 1.33 pts / match - AFC Wimbledon
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lincoln City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 64%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AFC Wimbledon - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lincoln City
AFC Wimbledon
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Lincoln City | Liga | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.77 | 2.60 | ▲ 2.74 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 49% | 51% | • 51% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 54% | 50% | • 51% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 41% | 27% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 85% | 71% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Lincoln City 0 - 0 - 1 AFC Wimbledon. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lincoln City vs AFC Wimbledon?
The EFL League One match finished Lincoln City 1:0 AFC Wimbledon. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Lincoln City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Lincoln City score 1.90 goals per game on average and AFC Wimbledon 1.26. The EFL League One average is 2.60 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 49% of Lincoln City's matches and 51% of AFC Wimbledon's.
What form are Lincoln City and AFC Wimbledon in?
Over the last 5 games Lincoln City have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and AFC Wimbledon 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lincoln City vs AFC Wimbledon?
The statistical background for Lincoln City vs AFC Wimbledon — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.