Linfield vs Ballymena United: match statistics

Both teams have scored 7 goals in their last five matches, giving them an identical average of 1.4 goals per game. Ballymena United have shown slightly more stable form, collecting 5 points during this period through 1 win and 2 draws, while Linfield have 4 points from 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. However, the hosts have conceded 9 goals in their five appearances, one more than their opponents, so their defense does not provide clear grounds for favoring them despite home advantage. At the same time, both teams have a negative goal difference over this stretch, 7:9 and 7:8 respectively, suggesting an evenly matched encounter with a realistic chance of a share of the points. The lack of complete season data on home and away results limits Linfield’s advantage, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The latest form clearly favors goals from both sides: BTTS occurred in 60% of Linfield’s five most recent matches and in as many as 80% of Ballymena United’s games. Both teams averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period, confirming relatively stable attacking potential. At the same time, Linfield conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match, while Ballymena United conceded 1.6, meaning both defenses regularly allow opponents to create scoring chances. The hosts recorded an xG of 1.44, with an xG against of 1.55, whereas the visitors created less, with an xG of 1.01; however, Linfield’s weaker defense increases their chances of scoring. Therefore, the strongest scenario is BTTS - Yes, although the visitors’ more solid defensive data, with an xG against of 0.77, limits confidence in the prediction.

The available data from the last five matches points to open profiles for both teams: Linfield averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Ballymena United also scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 goals per game. At least 3 goals were scored in 60% of each team’s matches, while both teams found the net in 60% of Linfield’s games and as many as 80% of Ballymena’s. The hosts’ attacking potential is confirmed by an average xG of 1.44, while their defence allowed opponents 1.55 xG, supporting the visitors’ chances of scoring. However, Linfield are coming off a run of three defeats, and with limited seasonal data available, Over 1.5 remains a safer option than betting on 3 goals, with an estimated probability of 72%.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at full-time, as both teams were level at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches, while their average first-half points tally was identical at 1.0. Linfield and Ballymena each scored an average of 0.6 goals before the break, while both teams conceded 1.0 goal on average, offering no clear advantage to either side in the opening phase. Across their last five matches, the hosts recorded just 1 win and 3 defeats, whereas Ballymena had 2 draws and 2 defeats, making the away side appear slightly more capable of maintaining an even scoreline. After the break, both teams averaged 0.8 goals, with Linfield’s goal difference in this period standing at 0, compared with +1 for Ballymena, which supports a full-time draw more than a decisive outcome.