Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz: match statistics

Kalisz have the stronger overall season record: they have won 4 of 12 matches and lost 3, while Lipno Stęszew have recorded 2 wins and suffered 8 defeats. However, away from home the visitors have drawn 67% of their matches, and with just 17% wins, that points more towards a share of the points than an away victory. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches, but have lost 4 of their last 5 at home and concede an average of 2.4 goals per game. Their chances are higher in quality than Kalisz’s away chances — their average xG is 1.43 and 0.97 respectively — although both defences allow opponents plenty of opportunities, conceding 2.27 and 1.90 xG respectively. Lipno’s weaker home form, combined with Kalisz’s tendency to draw away from home, makes a draw the most likely outcome.

BTTS has occurred in 50% of Lipno Stęszew's matches and 67% of Kalisz's games, with those figures rising to 80% and 60%, respectively, over their last five matches. Both defences have been vulnerable recently: the hosts have conceded an average of 2.0 goals, while the visitors have let in 2.2 goals per game. Lipno average 1.67 goals at home, while Kalisz concede 2.0 goals away, giving the hosts a clear chance to score. There is more uncertainty over the visitors finding the net: their average xG is 0.97, but they score an average of 1.33 goals away from home, while Lipno concede 1.17 goals there. Therefore, both teams to score is the more likely outcome, although the lower quality of chances created by Kalisz limits confidence in this pick.

Lipno matches average 2.84 goals, while Kalisz matches average 3.33; additionally, the Over 1.5 goals line has been cleared in 50% and 83% of their matches, respectively. The home side score an average of 1.67 goals, while the visitors concede 2.00, giving Lipno a clear chance to find the net. In their last five appearances, both teams have conceded heavily—Lipno an average of 2.0 goals and Kalisz 2.2—although their attacking xG figures are just 1.07 and 0.97 for the season. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick: the 2.90-goal forecast supports this line, while the moderate xG figures weaken the case for higher totals.

Lipno Stęszew led at the break in 3 of 6 matches, while Kalisz were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 games, supporting the case for the hosts to lead at the break. The home side score an average of 1.67 goals per match, while the visitors concede 2.00, and Lipno’s average xG is 1.07 compared with the 1.90 xG conceded by Kalisz. Lipno also have the edge in shots on target (3.20 to 2.33 per match), increasing the likelihood that they will maintain the initiative through to full-time. Their post-break performance also supports them holding on to the lead: the hosts score an average of 1.00 goal and concede 0.33 after half-time, while Kalisz concede 0.83. The risk to the 1/1 scenario is that Lipno have not led at the break in any of their last 5 matches, so a draw at half-time followed by a home win remains a significant alternative.