Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Boston River: match statistics

Liverpool FC Montevideo are in excellent form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, drawn once and conceded just 1 goal, while Boston River have scored 6 goals during that period and suffered one defeat. At home, the hosts create more chances, averaging 12.33 shots and 4.42 on target per match, compared with 9.54 and 3.46 respectively for the visitors away from home. The quality of chances also favors Liverpool, whose average home xG stands at 1.53, while they allow 1.05 xG; Boston River, meanwhile, record 1.23 xG away from home and allow opponents 1.57 xG. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 58% of their home matches, whereas the visitors do so in just 8% of away games and concede an average of 1.77 goals on the road. Boston River have lost 54% of their away matches, making a victory for the in-form hosts the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Liverpool FC Montevideo kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches, while Boston River failed to score in 38% of games. The home side are also in excellent defensive form: they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, with opponents’ xG reduced to 0.95. Their current run has produced BTTS in only 20% of matches, well below the league average of 50%. Boston River concede an average of 1.77 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in just 8% of games, so Liverpool should have good opportunities to score, but the visitors’ scoring rate of 0.92 goals per match limits their chances of finding a reply. Although Boston River recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, the hosts’ very solid recent defence makes the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The strongest signal is the low share of matches with at least four goals: both Liverpool Montevideo and Boston River finished below 3.5 goals in 85% of their matches this season. Liverpool concede an average of just 0.85 goals per match and have allowed opponents only 0.2 goals per game across their last five appearances, limiting the projection for the visitors to 0.78 goals. The hosts, however, are in very good attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals in their last five matches, while Boston River concede 1.77 goals per game over the season, which puts Liverpool’s expected goals at 1.58. Despite the hosts’ advantage, the two teams have gone Over 2.5 goals in only 31% and 54% of matches respectively, while the combined projection of 2.36 goals clearly supports the Under 3.5 goals outcome.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Liverpool FC Montevideo win, corresponding to the X/1 HT/FT outcome. The hosts were level at the break in 54% of their matches, compared with 62% for Boston River, with very low average first-half goal totals: 0.77 in Liverpool’s matches and 0.92 in Boston River’s. In their last five matches, Liverpool have not lost once, winning four times and averaging 2.4 goals scored, while conceding just 0.2 goals per game. After the break, the hosts have recently averaged 2.0 goals, whereas Boston River have conceded 1.15 goals per match in the second half throughout the season. Liverpool’s advantage is also supported by their higher number of shots on target, 4.77 compared with 3.46, as well as Boston River’s significantly weaker defensive record, with the opponent keeping a clean sheet in only 8% of matches.