Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Progreso: match statistics
Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Progreso: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Liverpool FC Montevideo played Progreso in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 3 October 2026. Venue: Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Liverpool FC Montevideo: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Progreso: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Liverpool FC Montevideo scores 1.30 and concedes 0.93 goals per match. Progreso scores 0.83 and concedes 1.43. League average: 2.37 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Liverpool FC Montevideo 43%, Progreso 43%. Over 2.5: Liverpool FC Montevideo 43%, Progreso 43%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Liverpool FC Montevideo has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.18. Liverpool FC Montevideo: 11.6 shots per match, Progreso: 8.7.
Match halves
Liverpool FC Montevideo: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.63. Progreso: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.47.
Goals by minute
Liverpool FC Montevideo: 31-45+ (9 goals). Progreso: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.37 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Liverpool FC Montevideo have won 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 4 goals, while Progreso have also recorded 3 wins but conceded 6. Home advantage favours the hosts: they average 1.21 goals scored and 0.86 conceded at home, whereas Progreso score 0.73 goals per game away and lose 60% of their away matches. Liverpool also create better chances, posting a home xG of 1.50 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.15, while averaging 12 shots per match against Progreso’s 8.4. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 64% of their home matches, while the visitors fail to score in 47% of their away games, further boosting Liverpool’s chances. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Liverpool have shared the points in 36% of their home matches, but their attacking and defensive records point to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS occurred in 47% of Liverpool’s matches and 40% of Progreso’s, below the league average of 51% in both cases. The strongest argument against both teams scoring is their attacking output: the hosts average 0.93 goals per game and the visitors just 0.73; they failed to score in 40% and 47% of their matches, respectively. The last 5 matches offer more support for BTTS - Yes, with the teams averaging 1.4 and 1.2 goals, while Progreso recorded BTTS in 60% of those games. Despite this improvement, the season-long frequency of matches in which at least one side failed to score makes BTTS - No the more likely pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 80% of Liverpool Montevideo’s matches and 93% of Progreso’s. Both teams score fewer than one goal per game this season—the hosts average 0.93 and the visitors 0.73—limiting the chances of a very high-scoring game. Their average xG figures are 1.22 and 1.15, respectively, while the league average is 2.37 goals, close to the 2.35 projected here. Some caution is warranted given their form over the last five matches, in which both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of games; however, the 3.5 line provides extra breathing room even if three goals are scored.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is a realistic scenario: Liverpool were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their matches and kept a clean sheet in the first half in four of their last five. Progreso averaged just 0.27 first-half goals this season, although their three leads at the break in their last five matches mean a draw cannot be taken for granted. After the break, recent form favors the home side: they averaged 1.0 goals to Progreso’s 0.6, while conceding 0.4 compared with their opponents’ 0.6. Liverpool also collected 10 points in their last five matches, compared with Progreso’s 9, and conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match against the visitors’ 1.2. Therefore, a half-time draw followed by a home win is marginally more likely than the hosts leading from start to finish.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Liverpool FC Montevideo | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Progreso is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Liverpool FC Montevideo · 2.4 pts / match - Progreso
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Liverpool FC Montevideo is 57% better for: goals scored per match.
1.3 goals / match - Liverpool FC Montevideo · 0.83 goals / match - Progreso
Liverpool FC Montevideo is 54% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.93 goals / match - Liverpool FC Montevideo · 1.43 goals / match - Progreso
Liverpool FC Montevideo scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 13% (4 of 30 matches).
Progreso scores in 57% of matches (17 of 30 matches), while Liverpool FC Montevideo keeps a clean sheet in 47% (14 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Liverpool FC Montevideo
Over / Under - Progreso
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Liverpool FC Montevideo is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Liverpool FC Montevideo · 0.97 pts / match - Progreso
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Liverpool FC Montevideo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Liverpool FC Montevideo
Progreso
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Liverpool FC Montevideo | Liga | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.23 | 2.37 | ▼ 2.27 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 51% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 43% | 44% | • 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 29% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 67% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 63% | 73% | ▲ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Liverpool FC Montevideo 2 - 1 - 0 Progreso. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Progreso?
The Primera División match finished Liverpool FC Montevideo 3:2 Progreso. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool FC Montevideo and Progreso?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Liverpool FC Montevideo won 2, Progreso won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Progreso?
Liverpool FC Montevideo score 1.30 goals per game on average and Progreso 0.83. The Primera División average is 2.37 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Liverpool FC Montevideo's matches and 43% of Progreso's.
What form are Liverpool FC Montevideo and Progreso in?
Over the last 5 games Liverpool FC Montevideo have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Progreso 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Progreso?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Progreso: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.