Liverpool vs Fulham: match statistics

Liverpool has a clear advantage in seasonal home data: on average 1.8 goals per match (xG 1.96), 5.27 shots on target and 60% possession, whereas Fulham away records 1.07 goals (xG 1.24), 3.6 shots on target and 50% possession. Defensively the hosts concede 1.13 goals per home match versus 1.67 conceded by Fulham on the road, and the share of matches in which Liverpool fail to score is only 13% compared to 33% for the visitors. However, in the last 5 fixtures Liverpool have a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (6-9 in goals, 0.8 points per match), while Fulham in that period have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (5-4, 1.4 points per match), which narrows the home side’s advantage. Additionally, Liverpool’s home win percentage is 53%, they have a positive home goal difference of +10 and average 17.87 shots per match, translating to better control and more goal-scoring opportunities. Taking into account the advantage in xG, shot volume and more efficient home defence, but also Liverpool’s weaker form in the last 5 matches, I estimate Liverpool’s win probability at 55%, draw 20% and Fulham win 25%.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Liverpool 63% and Fulham 60%, exceeding the league average of 56% and indicating a significant probability of Goal/Goal. Liverpool averages 1.69 goals scored and concedes 1.19 per match, while Fulham scores 1.07 and concedes 1.67 — Liverpool has the stronger attack (1.69 vs 1.07) and Fulham the weaker defense (1.67 conceded vs 1.19). This is supported by xG: seasonal xG 1.52 for Liverpool versus 1.24 for Fulham, and in the last 5 matches both teams had xG for 1.81 and 1.76, suggesting they are generating scoring opportunities. Although BTTS over the last 5 matches dropped to 40% for both teams, Liverpool conceded 9 goals in 5 (1.8 per match) and Fulham 4 goals in 5 (0.8 per match), which gives a mixed signal but increases the likelihood of a concession on Liverpool’s side. Overall, considering the seasonal 63%/60% BTTS, season goals scored 50 for Liverpool and 43 for Fulham, and Liverpool’s recent 9 goals conceded, I recommend BTTS = Yes.

Based on xG I expect about 1.50 goals from Liverpool (attack xG 1.52 vs Fulham conceded xG 1.47) and 1.26 from Fulham (attack xG 1.24 vs Liverpool conceded xG 1.27), totalling 2.76 expected goals. Seasonal metrics confirm an offensive profile: Liverpool have 63% of matches Over 2.5 goals, Fulham 53%, and for the 1.5 line the rates are even higher — 69% and 80% respectively. Additionally both teams show high BTTS: 63% for Liverpool and 60% for Fulham, while the league averages 2.73 goals per match, which supports the likelihood of at least two strikes. A Poisson model with mean 2.76 yields roughly 76% for Over 1.5 goals, ~52% for Over 2.5 and ~30% for Over 3.5, so the strongest, most reliable signal is for Over 1.5. For these reasons I recommend backing the Over side at 1.5 as the best and strongest option given the xG and seasonal percentages.

The most likely scenario is Liverpool leading at half-time and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1): the hosts led at the break in 38% of matches versus Fulham’s 13%. Liverpool average 0.63 goals by half-time compared to Fulham’s 0.33 and concede 0.38 by half-time versus their opponents’ 0.67, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead after the break. Additionally, the hosts win 56% of matches versus Fulham’s 27%, have an xG advantage of 1.52 to 1.24 and generate more shots (13.81 to 10.8) and more shots on target (3.88 to 3.6), suggesting control and the ability to score. In the conditional model this yields a 30% probability for 1/1, clearly higher than the next alternative X/1 (23%), therefore I recommend HT/FT 1/1.