Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics

Livingston have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match so far, scoring 2 goals and keeping a clean sheet. The hosts create chances worth an average of 2.59 xG, register 23 shots and 8 shots on target per match, while Dunfermline manage just 0.84 xG, 6 shots and 1 shot on target away from home. The visitors have yet to score on the road and have failed to find the net in 100% of their away matches, although their defence has kept a clean sheet in every one of them so far. In their last five matches, Livingston have scored 11 goals compared with Dunfermline’s 8, while both teams have conceded 3. However, the significantly higher quality of chances created clearly favours the hosts. A draw remains a realistic possibility given Dunfermline’s two draws this season, but Livingston’s attacking advantage should ultimately secure the win.

BTTS - No is the stronger scenario, as BTTS occurred in only 20% of Livingston’s last five matches and 40% of Dunfermline’s. Both sides have improved offensively, recently averaging 2.2 and 1.6 goals scored respectively, but each has conceded just 0.6 goals per game, increasing the likelihood of a one-sided result or a clean sheet. Livingston has very solid defensive metrics: the average xG allowed to opponents is 0.75, while Dunfermline creates only 0.84 xG on average and manages just 1 shot on target per match. Additionally, the league records BTTS in only 30% of matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game, while the available away data for Dunfermline shows no goals scored and 100% of matches without scoring. Therefore, it is most likely that at least one team—particularly the visitors—will fail to find the net.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as Livingston and Dunfermline have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals each across their last five matches. Livingston have greater attacking potential, with average xG of 1.75 over five games compared with the 1.26 xG allowed by Dunfermline, but the hosts should be limited by the opponent’s defensive approach. Dunfermline have averaged 1.56 xG, while Livingston’s defence has allowed just 0.78 xG per match, lowering the visitors’ projected goal total. Only 20% of Livingston’s last five matches and 40% of Dunfermline’s games went Over 2.5 goals, while the league average is just 1.6 goals and 10% of matches above this line. The projected 2.27 goals provide a clear safety margin for the 3.5 line.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time, as Dunfermline were level after 45 minutes in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Livingston did so in 3 of 5. In the first halves, both teams averaged 0.8 goals scored, with the hosts conceding 0.4 and the visitors just 0.2, which limits the likelihood of either side taking an early lead. After the break, Livingston show greater attacking potential: they average 1.4 goals compared with Dunfermline’s 0.8 and have a positive second-half goal difference of +6, while their opponents stand at +2. The hosts’ advantage is also supported by an xG of 1.42 versus 0.84 for the visitors, as well as an average of 5 shots on target for Livingston compared with just 1 for Dunfermline. The X/1 scenario is therefore the most likely: a cautious, evenly matched opening should develop into a Livingston advantage after the interval.