Livingston vs Stenhousemuir: match statistics

Livingston have a perfect home record: they have won both matches, scored an average of 2 goals and conceded none, while their xG stands at 1.93. The hosts also create significantly more chances, averaging 17 shots and 6 on target, compared with just 5 attempts and 3 on target for Stenhousemuir away from home. Stenhousemuir lead the table and remain unbeaten, with a run of 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 matches, alongside a 9:2 goal difference. However, the visitors allow opponents an xG of 2.21 per away match despite conceding only 0.5 goals on average, suggesting that their defence may be vulnerable to regression. Livingston’s superiority in the quality and volume of chances created at home points to a narrow home win, although the visitors’ strong 20% conversion rate increases the likelihood of a draw.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by the league’s low-scoring profile, with only 35% of matches ending with both teams scoring and an average of 1.75 goals per game. Livingston recorded BTTS in 0% of their last 5 matches, scoring just 0.8 goals and conceding 0.6 on average, which clearly limits the likelihood of an open game. Stenhousemuir are in better offensive form, averaging 1.8 goals across their last five appearances, but Livingston have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, while their average xG against stands at just 1.03. The visitors also have a 50% clean-sheet rate and have allowed opponents only 0.4 goals per match across their last five fixtures, while Livingston generated xG of 1.35. Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 50%, but the hosts’ current defensive run and the competition’s low scoring efficiency more strongly suggest that at least one team will fail to score.

Recent form clearly points to a low-scoring outcome: in their last 5 matches, Livingston averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Stenhousemuir recorded 1.8 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded. None of Livingston’s last five matches went over 2.5 goals, while Over 2.5 landed in just 20% of Stenhousemuir’s games. The average xG from the last five appearances stands at 1.35 for the hosts and 1.19 for the visitors, but both defenses allow opponents around 1.02-1.26 xG, limiting the projection to 1.85 goals. An additional argument is the league average of just 1.75 goals per match, with only 15% of games producing at least three goals. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5, as the form data and league profile strongly argue against a four-goal game.

The strongest signal for the first half is a draw: Stenhousemuir were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while Livingston recorded the same outcome in 60%. Both teams have been playing very cautiously before half-time recently, averaging only 0.2–0.4 goals each, with the combined first-half average standing at just 0.6. After the break, however, the form clearly favors the visitors: they won 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 0.4, whereas Livingston won 40% and averaged 0.8 goals scored. The hosts have home advantage and a higher season xG, 1.39 compared with 0.80, but their recent finishing has been weaker. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and a Stenhousemuir win at full-time (X/2).