Livorno vs Atalanta II: match statistics

Livorno remain unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2, with a goal difference of 8:3 and an average of 2.2 points per match. Over the same period, Atalanta II have scored just 5 goals, conceded 7, and won only 1 of their 5 matches. At home, Livorno average 2 goals per game, register 15 shots, including 6 on target, and post an average xG of 1.63. The visitors lost their only away match so far, failing to score while recording 6 shots and just 0.79 xG, although they maintain an average of 57% possession. Livorno’s defence is not flawless, allowing opponents 1.53 xG, but the hosts’ clearly superior finishing and Atalanta II’s weak attacking output away from home point to a Livorno victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Atalanta II’s very poor current attacking output: an average of 0.0 goals, 0.0 shots on target, and just 0.79 xG. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their matches so far, while Livorno average 2.0 goals and 16.0 shots per game. Atalanta II’s last five appearances look slightly better, with the team averaging 1.0 goal and 1.27 xG, but Livorno conceded only 0.6 goals per match during this period. Although the hosts have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, the superiority of their attack over the visitors’ limited goalscoring potential points more strongly towards an outcome in which at least one team fails to score. The “No” pick primarily covers the realistic scenario of a Livorno win to nil, rather than exclusively a goalless draw.

Livorno have averaged 1.6 goals scored over their last five matches, while Atalanta II have conceded 1.4 goals per game during that period, which supports the likelihood of at least one goal for the home side. The hosts are also creating a solid number of chances, with an average xG of 1.49 across their last five matches, while the opponents’ xG allowed by Atalanta II stands at 1.54. The visitors have recently improved their attack to 1.0 goal and 1.27 xG per match, but they have failed to score away from home over the season, so their projection remains limited to 0.80 goals. The total projection of 2.45 goals, combined with the fact that both teams recorded over 1.5 goals in their season data, gives the clearest edge to Over 1.5 goals, with a more balanced risk at the Over/Under 2.5 line.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Livorno victory, as the home side were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of just 0.4 goals before half-time. After the interval, Livorno markedly improve their efficiency: across their last five games, they have averaged 1.0 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded, while Atalanta II have scored just 0.2 goals after the break. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five appearances, recording 60% wins and 40% draws, whereas the visitors have won only 20% of their matches and lost 40%. Livorno’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.57 compared with Atalanta II’s 0.79, while the home side average 16 shots to their opponents’ 6. Although Atalanta II have recently managed to lead at the break in 60% of their matches, their poor attacking output after half-time increases the likelihood of Livorno turning an even start in their favour.