Livorno vs Vado: match statistics

Livorno remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Vado have suffered 2 defeats during this period and averaged only 1 point per game. The hosts have won both of their matches at home so far, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, whereas the visitors are still winless away from home, averaging 0.5 goals per match. Livorno average 5 shots on target per game—twice as many as Vado (2.5)—and convert 14% of their attempts, compared with just 5% for their opponents. Vado’s defence allows an average xG of 1.54 and concedes 1.5 goals away from home, which, combined with Livorno’s xG of 1.29, gives the hosts a clear advantage. A draw remains a realistic outcome due to the small number of matches played and Vado’s 50% away-draw rate, but a Livorno victory is more likely.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Livorno’s very solid defense: the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches and conceded just 1 goal, averaging 0.0 per game. Vado score only 0.5 goals per away match and just 0.8 across their last five appearances, clearly increasing the risk that they fail to find the net. Livorno are the favorites to score, averaging 2.0 goals at home, while Vado concede 1.5 goals away. BTTS occurred in 0% of Livorno’s matches and in 40% of the last five matches for each team, compared with the league average of 50%. Although Vado average 2.5 shots on target and have an away xG of 1.35, the dominant scenario remains a home win with no goal from the visitors—therefore, BTTS - No.

In their last 5 matches, Livorno averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded just 0.4, while Vado scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.4 per game. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches played at home so far, whereas Vado failed to score in 50% of their away appearances. Over their last five league rounds, both teams had 40% of matches with at least three goals, below the league average of 47%. Although Vado’s away xG stands at 1.35, Livorno’s very strong defence, with an xG against of 0.79, limits the visitors’ attacking potential. The projected total of 1.90 goals strongly favours the Under 3.5 goals market.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Livorno win, as the hosts have drawn the first half in 100% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Vado. At full-time, Livorno have averaged 2.2 points per match across their last five games and remain unbeaten, while Vado have collected just 1.0 point per match, with a 20% win rate and 40% loss rate. The hosts have conceded only 0.4 goals per match during this period, whereas the visitors have allowed opponents to score 1.4 goals on average. After the break, Livorno have scored 0.8 goals on average and have not conceded any, while Vado have failed to score after half-time and have conceded 0.6 goals on average. Although Vado’s xG stands at 1.35 compared with Livorno’s 0.80, Livorno’s superior finishing, form and second-half control support a turnaround after the half-time draw.