ŁKS Łódź II vs Lomza: match statistics

ŁKS Łódź II have lost all 5 of their matches so far, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 11, while their last five fixtures have ended in a run of five consecutive defeats. The hosts’ home form is particularly concerning: they are yet to score at home, despite averaging 1.52 xG and 6 shots on target per match. Łomża are also still without a win, but they have drawn twice in their last five league matches, whereas the hosts’ opponents have failed to pick up a single point. Away from home, the visitors score an average of 1.67 goals per game and have not been held scoreless in any match, giving them a clear advantage over an ineffective ŁKS II side. Łomża’s defence does concede as many as 3 goals per away game, so a draw remains a realistic outcome; however, the visitors have the better chance of ending their winless run.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the current form of both teams: in their last 5 matches, this outcome occurred in 60% of games for each side. ŁKS II and Łomża scored 1.0 goal per match during this period, while conceding 2.4 and 2.0 goals respectively, creating favourable conditions for a goal exchange. However, the hosts have a concerning home record, having failed to score so far and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of matches, so the case for BTTS - Yes is not decisive. On the other hand, Łomża have not kept a single clean sheet away from home, concede an average of 3.0 goals, and have an average xG against of 1.76. With the league BTTS average at 64%, it is more likely that both teams will score, although ŁKS II's poor home finishing remains a risk.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Łomża concede as many as 3.0 goals per away match on average and have kept no clean sheets away from home. Despite recording an average of zero goals scored in the current season split, the hosts have created chances worth 1.57 xG per match across their last five games, while their opponents allow an average of 1.76 xG. Łomża register 5.33 shots on target away from home and score an average of 1.67 goals there, while ŁKS II conceded 2.4 goals per match over their last five games. Across the teams’ last five appearances, 3.4 and 3.0 total goals were scored per match respectively, supporting a projection of 2.80 goals and a clear preference for Over 1.5.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a win for Łomża, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches. During this period, ŁKS scored just 0.2 goals per match before the break and trailed at half-time in 60% of their games, while Łomża recorded 1.0 points in the first halves compared with the hosts’ 0.4. The visitors are creating significantly more clear-cut chances, averaging 5.33 shots on target per match compared with ŁKS’s 1.5, while their xG stands at 1.47 versus 1.19 for the hosts. After the break, ŁKS conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while across the league, at least one goal is scored in the second half in 81% of games. Łomża’s advantage is tempered by their weak defensive record, with the team conceding an average of 3.0 goals, which is why a draw at half-time is more credible than the visitors taking the lead in the first half.