Llandudno vs Ammanford: match statistics

Llandudno have won 4 of their 5 matches so far, scoring 13 goals, and sit 4th, while Ammanford remain winless after five rounds (2 draws, 3 defeats) in 12th place. The hosts have won every home fixture, averaging 2.67 goals from 15 shots with 62% possession, whereas the visitors score just 0.67 goals per away game on average. The disparity in the quality of chances created is reflected in Llandudno’s xG of 1.68 compared with Ammanford’s 0.90, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents an average xG of 2.25. Ammanford have lost 67% of their away matches, kept no clean sheets on the road and concede an average of 1.67 goals, which strongly supports the prediction of a home win. The draw remains a possibility mainly because Llandudno concede an average of 1 goal per home match, but the hosts hold a clear advantage in form, control and attacking strength.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: BTTS occurred in 50% of Llandudno’s matches and 67% of Ammanford’s, while both teams recorded 60% across their last five appearances. Neither side has kept a clean sheet so far, with Llandudno conceding an average of 2.00 goals and Ammanford 1.67 per game this season. However, Llandudno have been clearly more effective in their current form, scoring 2.6 goals per match across their last five fixtures, while Ammanford conceded 1.8 goals per game during that period. The main risk to the pick is the visitors’ weak attack, as they average 0.67 goals per game this season and generate 0.90 xG. However, the home side’s defence allows 1.81 xG and has yet to keep a clean sheet. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that Llandudno score, while Ammanford exploit the hosts’ defensive vulnerability and also find the net.

Llandudno are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 2.6 goals over their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 1.76. During this period, Ammanford conceded 1.8 goals per game and allowed their opponents an average xG of 1.94, clearly supporting the prospect of at least two goals for the hosts. Both teams have recorded 100% of matches with a minimum of 2 goals so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet. The visitors create fewer chances, averaging 0.78 xG in their last 5 appearances, but Llandudno have still conceded an average of 1.0 goal, making an away goal a realistic possibility. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest selection, as the projected total of 2.80 goals gives this line a clearer edge than the more demanding 2.5 and 3.5 goal lines.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Llandudno victory at full-time, as the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Ammanford have failed to win any and lost 3 of those 5. In the first halves, Llandudno drew 2 of their last 5 matches, whereas Ammanford went into the break trailing in 60% of their games, supporting the prospect of an even start followed by a late advantage for the hosts. After the break, Llandudno average 1.4 goals scored and concede just 0.2, while the visitors score only 0.4 goals and have lost the second half in 80% of their recent appearances. The difference in quality is also reflected in their scoring form: the hosts have recently averaged 2.6 goals scored per match and 1.0 conceded, compared with Ammanford’s 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.