Llandudno vs Holywell: match statistics

Llandudno go into the match as the second-placed team, with a perfect record of 2 wins and a 7:2 goal difference, while Holywell sit 16th after two defeats and a 2:9 goal ratio. The hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 goals during that period, whereas the visitors have lost 4 of 5 games, conceding as many as 14 goals. At home, Llandudno score an average of 3 goals, with 56% possession and a 25% shot conversion rate, while Holywell concede an average of 6 goals per away match. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in chance quality: their xG stands at 1.49, while opponents allow teams to generate xG as high as 2.68. Holywell are capable of creating chances, with an away xG of 1.50, but their weak defence and 100% away-loss record clearly favour Llandudno.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as both Llandudno and Holywell have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far this season, with neither team keeping a clean sheet. Holywell should create chances against the home side’s defence, which concedes an average xG of 2.08, while the visitors themselves generate xG of 1.50 and average 8 shots on target. Llandudno’s average xG is lower at 0.88, but their opponents concede as many as 6.0 goals per match on average and allow opponents an xG of 2.68, significantly increasing the home side’s chances of scoring. In their last five matches, Llandudno averaged 3.0 goals scored, while Holywell conceded 2.8, although the visitors’ weaker BTTS figure over this period, at 40%, limits confidence in the selection. Despite this reservation, the combination of two highly vulnerable defences and strong attacking activity from both teams points more towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Both teams have exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches so far this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Llandudno are in excellent attacking form, averaging 3.0 goals over their last five matches, while Holywell have conceded 2.8 goals per game during the same period. The hosts are creating an average of 1.76 xG in their last five matches, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents 1.69 xG, which strongly supports at least two goals in the match. Holywell should also contribute, as they average 8 shots on target per game and have a season xG of 1.50. A projected total of 3.35 goals gives the strongest edge to Over 1.5 goals, with less risk than higher lines.

Llandudno are in clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals and conceding 1.6, while Holywell have suffered 4 defeats and conceded an average of 2.8 goals. The hosts held a lead at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of those games. In the first halves, Llandudno averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, whereas Holywell scored 1.2 and allowed opponents to score 1.4 goals. After the break, the hosts’ advantage remains evident, as they averaged 1.6 goals scored during that period, compared with just 0.4 for Holywell, who also conceded 1.4. Although Holywell have a higher seasonal attacking xG, 1.50 compared with 0.88, their extremely weak defence, with an xG against of 2.68, supports the scenario of Llandudno leading at half-time and maintaining the win.