Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira: match statistics

A draw appears the most likely outcome: Llaneros record as many as 78% draws at home, while Deportivo has only 1 win, 7 draws and 11 losses away. Llaneros average 1.11 goals per home match (xG 1.17) versus Pereira’s just 0.6 goals away (xG 0.72), giving the hosts an advantage of approximately 0.51 goals and 0.45 xG per game. The visitors concede 1.9 goals on average away (xG against 1.87) and fail to score in 60% of away matches, whereas Llaneros concede 1.0 goals at home and fail to score in only 22% of fixtures, further highlighting Pereira’s poor away finishing. Additionally, the hosts average 10.44 shots (3.33 on target) at home with 52% possession, while Pereira registers 6.9 shots (2.5 on target) and 43% possession away, favoring Llaneros’ game control. Considering the high share of home draws this season and Llaneros’ better form in the last 5 matches (3 wins, average 1.8 points per game versus Pereira’s 1.6), I forecast a draw; probabilities: draw 55%, home win 30%, away win 15%.

I assess that BTTS - No is more likely. Deportivo Pereira averages only 0.6 goals per match this season and failed to score in 60% of games, with a recent 5-match average of 0.8 goals. Llaneros as hosts average 1.0 goal this season and 1.4 in the last 5 matches, but their rate of matches with Goal/Goal in the last 5 appearances is only 20%, weakening the BTTS signal. Additionally, xG shows 1.2 for Llaneros versus 0.72 for Pereira, and shots on target are 4.33 vs 2.5, so the home side creates significantly more chances while the visitors lack offensive quality. Considering seasonal BTTS percentages of 44% for Llaneros and 40% for Pereira (below the league average of 53%), I assign 62% to 'No' and 38% to 'Yes'.

Both teams show low goal-scoring potential: Llaneros averages 1.00 goals this season (7 goals in last 5, i.e. 1.4), and Deportivo Pereira 0.60 (4 goals in last 5, i.e. 0.8). xG and shot metrics confirm moderate threat — home xG 1.20 vs away 0.72, with average shots 11.67 vs 6.90 and conversion rate 9%, translating to approximately 1.16 expected goals for Llaneros and 0.69 for Pereira (total ~1.85). Seasonally Over 2.5 occurs in 44% of Llaneros matches and 40% of Pereira matches (league 48%), so the pair sits below the league average for 3+ goals. A Poisson model with total expected goals ~1.85 gives Over 1.5 ~55%, Over 2.5 ~28% and Over 3.5 ~12%, meaning the strongest statistical signal is Under 3.5 (~88%). Therefore I recommend backing the Under side at line 3.5 as the safest play given projected xG 1.16/0.69 and combined expectation ~1.85 goals.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Llaneros win (X/1): the hosts were level at the break in 44% of matches this season, and in the last 5 fixtures the proportion of half-time draws has risen to 60%. Llaneros produce higher xG (1.2 vs 0.72) and have more shots on target (4.33 vs 2.5), which combined with a seasonal goals average of 1.0 versus 0.6 gives them an advantage in chance creation. Deportivo Pereira have poor season-long metrics – 0% wins and only 0.3 points per game on average – so their chances of a full-time victory are slim. Additionally, the hosts have scored 3 goals in minutes 76–90 this season, suggesting decisions often come in the second half and increasing the probability of a draw at the break turning into a home turnaround.