Llaneros vs Once Caldas: match statistics
Llaneros vs Once Caldas: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Llaneros played Once Caldas in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 30 March 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Llaneros: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Once Caldas: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Llaneros scores 1.08 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Once Caldas scores 1.85 and concedes 1.31. League average: 2.52 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Llaneros 54%, Once Caldas 85%. Over 2.5: Llaneros 23%, Once Caldas 54%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Once Caldas has higher xG: 1.56 vs 1.10. Llaneros: 10.3 shots per match, Once Caldas: 14.2.
Match halves
Llaneros: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.62. Once Caldas: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Llaneros: 31-45+ (3 goals). Once Caldas: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.52 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Llaneros at home exhibit a very high draw rate (Draw% 71%) and low win efficiency (Win% 14%), which makes a home win difficult. Once Caldas have better form and offence (24 season goals, 11 in last 5), higher away SOT (4.33) and FTS% 0, increasing their scoring chances. However xG and avg goals are similar (Llaneros xG for 1.10 vs Once Caldas xG for 1.19) and hosts rarely lose at home, favoring a draw. Recent results favor the visitors (PPG 2.0 vs 1.2), so I assign them significant win probability alongside the draw. Overall the most likely outcome is a draw, with clear risk of a Once Caldas win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Strong BTTS signal: both teams have very high seasonal BTTS (Llaneros 86%, Once Caldas 83%) and low CS rates (14% and 17%), increasing the probability of both teams scoring. xG and goals show Llaneros both creates and concedes regularly (xG_for 1.88, xG_against 1.30, avg 2.29 scored, 1.57 conceded), while Once Caldas also scores and is defensively exposed (xG_for 1.19, xG_against 1.58, avg 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded). Home shot/SOT advantage (17.57/6.71 vs 10.17/4.33) indicates sustained pressure, and guests’ 11 goals in last 5 show response capability. Despite league BTTS 56%, dominant team-level indicators and low CS make BTTS Yes the most confident pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis indicates high goal potential: combined xG ~3.07 (1.88/1.19), both teams show very high BTTS rates (86% and 83%) and 100% >1.5 matches this season. Llaneros average 2.29 goals per match while opponents concede 1.0 on average, increasing home scoring probability. Shot and SOT numbers favor home offense (17.57 shots, 6.71 SOT). Combined xG and historical Over/Under 2.5 favor Over 2.5, though with less certainty than 1.5. Strongest signal: Over 1.5 given dominating seasonal stats.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Stats indicate a Llaneros advantage: notably higher xG (1.88 vs 1.19), more shots and season efficiency, translating into a higher share of HT leads and HT goals (scoredAVGHT_home 1.14, leadingAtHTPercentage_home 43%). Llaneros also have higher win rates and season PPG, increasing the probability of holding a lead through FT. High BTTS for both teams suggests the opponent may score, so scenarios with draws and BTTS receive significant weight. Once Caldas’ good recent form raises the chance of an equalizer or second-half advantage, justifying moderate probabilities for comebacks and draws. Overall the strongest signal is Llaneros leading at HT and winning FT (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Llaneros | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Once Caldas is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Llaneros · 2 pts / match - Once Caldas
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Once Caldas is 71% better for: goals scored per match.
1.08 goals / match - Llaneros · 1.85 goals / match - Once Caldas
Llaneros is 31% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Llaneros · 1.31 goals / match - Once Caldas
Llaneros scores in 77% of matches (10 of 13 matches), while Once Caldas keeps a clean sheet in 15% (2 of 13 matches).
Once Caldas scores in 100% of matches (13 of 13 matches), while Llaneros keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Llaneros
Over / Under - Once Caldas
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Once Caldas is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.23 pts / match - Llaneros · 1.46 pts / match - Once Caldas
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Llaneros - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Once Caldas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Llaneros
Once Caldas
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Llaneros | Liga | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.08 | 2.52 | ▲ 3.15 |
| Both teams scored | • 54% | 55% | ▲ 85% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 23% | 48% | ▲ 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 26% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | • 69% | 70% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 79% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Llaneros 1 - 0 - 1 Once Caldas. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Llaneros vs Once Caldas?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Llaneros 1:1 Once Caldas. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Llaneros and Once Caldas?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Llaneros won 1, Once Caldas won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Llaneros vs Once Caldas?
Llaneros score 1.08 goals per game on average and Once Caldas 1.85. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.52 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Llaneros's matches and 85% of Once Caldas's.
What form are Llaneros and Once Caldas in?
Over the last 5 games Llaneros have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Once Caldas 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Llaneros vs Once Caldas?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.