LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon-Brovar: match statistics

LNZ Cherkasy have a clearly better record after five matchdays: they have collected 5 points with a 2:4 goal difference, while Obolon-Brovar remain winless and without a goal scored, having conceded 8. At home, the hosts average 1 goal per match and have an xG of 1.27, which should be enough against a visiting side allowing opponents an xG of 1.52. Obolon’s biggest problem is their away attack: they average just 4.6 shots and 1.8 shots on target per game, with 0 goals and an xG of 0.64. LNZ’s home defence concedes just 0.5 goals per match and has kept a clean sheet in 50% of games, making it difficult for the visitors to end their scoring drought. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Obolon have drawn 3 of their 5 matches, but the superior chance quality and home advantage favour an LNZ victory.

The strongest signal is Obolon’s complete lack of goals this season and in their last 5 matches, alongside an average of just 0.53 xG and 1.8 shots on target per game. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their matches, while also keeping a clean sheet in 60%, clearly pointing towards scenarios in which at least one team fails to score. LNZ have averaged only 0.4 goals in their last five appearances, despite recording 1.33 xG, so even potential home dominance does not guarantee goals from both sides. BTTS - Yes has failed to land in each team’s last five matches, while the league average for this market is only 37%. Therefore, the most likely outcome is BTTS - No, primarily due to Obolon’s extremely low probability of scoring.

Obolon have failed to score in their last five matches, recording just 0.53 xG per game and averaging 1.8 shots on target. LNZ are not a prolific team either: they have averaged 0.4 goals across their last five appearances, although their 1.33 xG suggests a chance of scoring once. In the last five matches involving both teams, Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 20% of cases, and neither side has recorded a game in which both teams scored. The hosts have conceded an average of 0.8 goals in their last five matches, further limiting the prospects of the inefficient visitors breaking through. The forecast of 1.45 total goals strongly supports Under 3.5, as four goals would be required for this bet to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as LNZ were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Obolon. During this period, the hosts conceded just 0.0 goals per match before half-time, while scoring only 0.2 themselves, clearly favouring a 0–0 HT/FT outcome. Obolon failed to score in any of their last five matches, with 100% of those appearances ending without a goal from them, so it is difficult to expect the visitors to establish a lead. Over the full match, both teams have recorded a 40% loss rate in their last five outings, but Obolon registered draws in as many as 60% of them, compared with 40% for LNZ. LNZ’s low average of 1.2 goals per match in their latest sequence, along with Obolon’s 1.4, further points towards a cagey encounter without a clear winner.