Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo: match statistics

Lommel United are showing significantly better current form: they have taken 10 points from their last five matches, with 3 wins, a draw and just one defeat, while KVC Westerlo have lost 4 of their last 5 games. During this period, the hosts scored 9 goals and conceded 5, whereas the visitors managed only 5 goals while conceding as many as 12. Westerlo average 2 goals per away match, but also concede 3 per game and have failed to keep a clean sheet on every occasion. Lommel have a poor home record, including one match without scoring and an xG of 0.77, but Westerlo’s defence allows opponents chances worth an average xG of 2.39, which should give the hosts a clear opportunity to break their scoring drought. Both teams have defensive issues; however, the form trend and the significantly lower number of goals conceded point to a Lommel win.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as in the current season both Lommel United and KVC Westerlo have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, with 0% of games ending without a goal scored. Lommel average 1.0 goals, while Westerlo concede as many as 3.0 per match, and the hosts have improved their scoring average to 1.8 goals across their last five appearances. The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Lommel’s defence allows opponents an xG of 2.26 and have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season. Even with Westerlo’s recent scoring rate dropping to 1.0 goal per game, their xG across the last five rounds stands at 1.47, while Lommel allow opponents plenty of chances. BTTS at 80% in the hosts’ last five matches and 60% for the visitors still exceeds the league average of 61%, making it more likely that both teams will score.

Both teams have recorded at least 2 goals in 100% of their league matches so far, as well as Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals in 100% of games, although this is still a limited sample. Lommel have averaged 1.8 goals scored across their last five appearances, while Westerlo have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match during the same period. The visitors have also failed to keep a clean sheet and are conceding an average of 3 goals in the competition, while Lommel have an average xG of 1.33. The hosts’ defence allows opponents an average of 2.26 xG, so Westerlo should have the conditions to respond despite their weaker recent finishing. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the 3.00-goal projection and the offensive and defensive profiles of both teams clearly reduce the risk of a very low-scoring outcome.

Lommel United held the lead at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Westerlo failed to lead at half-time in any of those games and were already trailing at the break in 2 of 5. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded just 1.0 per match, whereas the visitors scored 1.0 and conceded as many as 2.4. Lommel’s advantage is also evident in the full-time results: they won 60% of their last five matches, while Westerlo lost 80% of theirs. After the break, the hosts still look the more solid side, averaging 0.8 goals compared with Westerlo’s 0.2, making a Lommel lead at half-time followed by a win at full-time the most likely scenario: HT/FT 1/1.