Lomza vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki: match statistics

Lomza are the favorites: they sit 3rd with 16 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses this season, while Lechia have 11 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. At home Lomza average 2.62 goals scored and have xG 1.83 with 1.00 goals conceded on average, whereas Lechia away score 1.92 (xG 1.49) and concede 1.77 per match. The hosts register more shots on target (6.67 vs 4.78), convert chances better (18% vs 15%), maintain higher possession (56% vs 51%) and have 46% clean sheets at home versus 15% for the visitors. However, Lechia show better form over the last five matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 10 goals scored and 2.0 points per game compared to Lomza’s 7 goals and 1.2 points, which narrows the home advantage. Considering Lomza’s seasonal defensive superiority (25 goals conceded vs 41) and 69% home win rate versus the visitors’ 46% win rate, I forecast a home victory.

The BTTS (Both Teams To Score) scenario appears more likely: home side records BTTS 85% this season and visitors 69%, both above the league average of 63%. Lomża averages 2.23 goals scored and concedes 1.38 per match, while Lechia averages 1.92 scored and 1.77 conceded, indicating both teams regularly feature on the scoresheet. xG analysis shows the home team generates 1.80 xG while conceding 1.65 xG to Lechia, and Lechia posts 1.49 xG while conceding 1.51 xG to Lomża, supporting a goals exchange. Last 5 matches give mixed signals: Lomża had only 20% BTTS (7 scored and 5 conceded; averages 1.4 and 1.0), while Lechia had 80% BTTS (10–6; averages 2.0 and 1.2), so the visitors’ form increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering the seasonal 85%/69% BTTS, goal averages 2.23 vs 1.92 and xG 1.80 vs 1.49, I recommend BTTS "Yes" with an estimated probability of 78% versus 22% for "No".

Statistics point to a goal-friendly match: hosts Lomza score an average of 2.23 goals per game, visitors Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.92, with xG of 1.80 for the hosts and 1.49 for the visitors. The average of the hosts' xG (1.80) and the xG against the visitors (1.65) yields an expected 1.73 goals for Lomza, while the average of the visitors' xG (1.49) and the xG against the hosts (1.51) is 1.50 goals for Lechia, totaling 3.23. The hosts register on average 16.08 shots with 6.25 on target versus the visitors' 11.44 and 4.78 on target, which supports the attacking edge and higher xG for the hosts. Both teams frequently produce Both Teams To Score (BTTS: 85% for the hosts and 69% for the visitors) and the seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 goals are 100% and 92%, strongly favoring Over 1.5. The seasonal share of matches over 2.5 is 69% for both teams, but the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

In the last 5 matches the visitors were leading at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5), scoring a total of 10 goals by half-time (1.6 on average), while the hosts had only 4 half-time goals (0.2 average). Lomza comes out strongly after the break: in minutes 46–60 they scored 8 goals versus 3 for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches the hosts averaged 2.0 points in second halves with a positive second-half goal difference (+4 vs 0). Over the season the hosts led at half-time in 54% of matches, average 1.23 goals at half-time and concede 0.46, with xG of 1.80 versus the visitors’ 1.49 and 6.25 shots on target versus 4.78, demonstrating their chance-creation ability. Additionally, 85% of the hosts’ matches end with both teams scoring, so an early visitor lead does not preclude a turnaround after the break. For these reasons the strongest signal from the data is the HT/FT 2/1 scenario: visitors leading at half-time, and Lomza overturns the deficit to win after regular time.