Lomza vs Mławianka Mława: match statistics

Lomza holds a clear advantage: they are 2nd in the table, with 21 wins this season and 75 goals scored, averaging 2.69 goals per home game. Defensively the hosts concede only 0.88 goals per home match and register 6.33 shots on target per game, while Mławianka Mława scores 1.31 goals away and concedes 1.69 with 4.25 shots on target. The efficiency gap is evident: Lomza has a 20% conversion rate at home versus Mławianka’s 12%, and the hosts have 0% goalless matches at home compared to 25% for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Lomza scored 14 and conceded 3 (avg 2.8–0.6), while Mławianka scored 8 and conceded 6 (1.6–1.2), which confirms the hosts’ superiority. Based on this I predict a home win (1) with probability 70%, draw 16% and away win 14%.

The dominant signal for BTTS is the season-long rate of both teams scoring: 82% for Lomza and 56% for Mławianka, versus a league average of 62%. Lomza averages 1.94 goals per game with an xG of 2.28, while Mławianka concedes 1.69 goals on average (57 conceded this season) and has an xG against of 1.31, suggesting the home side will create chances and the visitors are prone to conceding. Additionally, Lomza registers 8.08 shots on target compared to Mławianka’s 4.25, and the hosts have only a 6% clean sheet rate this season (vs 25% for Mławianka), so Lomza’s opponents rarely leave without a goal. A counterargument is recent form: in the last 5 matches Lomza’s BTTS was only 20% and Lomza conceded 3 goals in that span (0.6 average), which lowers confidence in the prediction. However, considering the season xG metrics, superiority in shots on target and the hosts’ high BTTS, I assign 72% to 'BTTS - Yes' and 28% to 'No Goal' as the most justified choice.

xG and goal analysis point to a high-scoring game: home Lomza’s attacking xG is 2.28 versus Mławianka’s defensive average of 1.31, implying an expected ≈1.80 goals for the home side; Mławianka’s attacking xG is 1.41 against Lomza’s defense of 1.38, implying ≈1.40 goals for the visitors, totaling ≈3.20 goals. Both teams have 88% of season matches over 1.5 goals (Lomza 88%, Mławianka 88%), and Lomza has 82% of matches over 2.5, which strongly supports overs. Lomza averages 17.33 shots and 8.08 on target per match versus Mławianka’s 11.5/4.25, and the home BTTS rate is 82% (league 62%), increasing the probability of at least two goals. In the last 5 matches Lomza scored 14 goals (2.8 per match) and conceded 3 (0.6), confirming strong attacking form. For these reasons the safest line to play is Over 1.5 (strongest signal); Over 2.5 also looks attractive (forecast ≈74%), while Over 3.5 remains riskier (≈45%).

I forecast a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time home win (X/1) as the most likely outcome. A draw at the break is the most common signal: the home side has 53% of matches level at half-time and the visitors 44%, with low rates of both teams scoring in the first half (29% and 25%). After the break the hosts dominate statistically – they average 1.47 goals in the second half and in 94% of matches at least one goal is scored after half-time, while also posting xG of 2.28 versus the visitors’ 1.41 and 8.08 shots on target versus 4.25, indicating a greater number of clear scoring opportunities. Additionally, over the season the hosts average 1.94 goals per game versus the visitors’ 1.31, and in the last five matches they have won 80% of the time compared to the visitors’ 60%, so I consider the X/1 scenario the strongest.