Lomza vs Ząbkovia Ząbki: match statistics

Ząbkovia Ząbki are in significantly better form: they have collected 10 points from their last 5 matches, winning 3 games and scoring 11 goals, while Łomża have failed to win any of their last five outings. The hosts are highly ineffective at home, averaging just 0.33 goals, failing to score in 67% of matches and recording only 1.67 shots on target per game. The visitors create considerably more danger, averaging 15 shots and 5 shots on target, while their away xG stands at 1.73 compared with Łomża’s 1.13. However, Ząbkovia’s away defence is vulnerable to errors, conceding an average of 2.5 goals against an xG against of 1.91, which increases the hosts’ chances of securing a draw. Despite the visitors’ poor away record, their current attacking efficiency and advantage in the quality of chances created point to an away win.

The signal for both teams to score is strengthened by Łomża’s high season BTTS rate of 75%, as well as their results in the last five matches: 80% for the hosts and 60% for Ząbkovia. Łomża have failed to score in none of their matches this season, while Ząbkovia concede an average of as many as 2.5 goals away from home, with clean sheets in only 25% of matches. However, the visitors are dangerous enough to respond: they have scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, generated an xG of 2.25, and recorded 5 shots on target per game. Łomża’s defence conceded 1.6 goals per match during this period, while their xG against stands at 1.63, clearly increasing Ząbkovia’s chances of scoring. Ząbkovia’s season BTTS rate of 25% lowers confidence in the selection, but the current attacking form of both sides and the league BTTS average of 68% support the “BTTS - Yes” scenario.

The match profile clearly favors goals: Łomża averages 2.0 goals at home, while Ząbkovia concedes as many as 2.5 goals per away game. The hosts create an average of 2.32 xG, whereas the visitors generate 1.73 xG and face a Łomża defense that allows opponents 1.65 xG. In their last five matches, Ząbkovia scored 11 goals and produced 2.25 xG per game, which strengthens their projection despite the hosts’ more solid defense. At least two goals were scored in 75% of Łomża’s matches and in all of Ząbkovia’s away fixtures, while the league records a high average of 3.63 goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even with more conservative finishing, the data from both teams indicates a very high probability of surpassing this low line.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and a Ząbkovia victory after 90 minutes, as both teams were level at the break in 50% of their matches, while the visitors went into half-time level in as many as 60% of their last five games. Łomża does have the stronger overall season record, with a 75% win rate and an average of 2.0 goals scored, but their current form is poor: they are taking just 0.6 points per game across their last five appearances, compared with Ząbkovia’s 2.0. The second half is the key factor, as Łomża have failed to score in any of their last five matches after the break and conceded an average of 1.2 goals, whereas Ząbkovia have averaged 1.4 goals in the second half. The visitors have also won the second half in 40% of their recent matches, while the hosts have lost it in 80%, strongly supporting the scenario of a turnaround after the break.