Londrina vs Botafogo SP: match statistics

I predict a Londrina win, primarily because the hosts average 1.75 goals at home versus just 0.78 for Botafogo SP away, and in the last 5 matches they have scored 13 goals compared to the visitors' 9. Londrina has a clear edge in chance quality: 4.25 shots on target per home game versus 2.89 for Botafogo, and a higher conversion rate of 13% versus 6%; FTS is 25% vs 56% for the away side, indicating the visitors frequently fail to finish opportunities. xG figures are relatively close (Londrina xG for 1.41 vs Botafogo away xG for 1.28), while xG against are 1.43 vs 1.46, showing the hosts' advantage is mainly due to more efficient finishing. Additionally, Londrina have a home goal difference of +4 and 38% clean sheets, whereas Botafogo away have a -2 goal difference and only 22% clean sheets, which supports higher chances for the home side.

Londrina has a season BTTS rate of 75% versus 33% for Botafogo SP, with both teams recording BTTS at 60% in their last 5 matches. xG analysis shows Londrina generates on average xG 1.58 per match against Botafogo’s xG conceded 1.46, while Botafogo posts xG 1.28 versus Londrina’s xG against 1.06, suggesting both sides have scoring potential. In the last 5 games Londrina averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (13 for, 5 against), and Botafogo averaged 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded (9 for, 6 against), so match tempo favors goal exchanges. Additionally, Londrina has only 13% clean sheets on the season versus 22% for Botafogo, and a superiority in shots on target 5.38 to 2.89 with efficiency 12% vs 6% indicates the hosts will create most chances, but the visitors have sufficient xG to score. Overall, considering Londrina’s strong 75% seasonal signal, the even 60% BTTS in the last 5, and confirmation from xG values, I forecast 70% for BTTS - Yes and 30% for No Goal.

I estimate total expected goals at approximately 2.69: Londrina 1.52 xG, Botafogo SP 1.17 xG (sum 2.69). Londrina averages 1.63 goals per game this season with xG 1.58, 5.38 shots on target and a 12% conversion rate, while Botafogo SP records 0.78 goals, xG 1.28, 2.89 shots on target and a 6% conversion. Londrina at home has Over 1.5 in 88% of matches and Over 2.5 in 63% of games, whereas Botafogo has 33% and 22% respectively; additionally, in the last 5 matches of both teams Over 2.5 occurred in 60% of cases. Low clean sheet rates (home 13%, away 22%) and high percentages of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5: home 100%, away 89%) reduce the probability of a goalless outcome, so the strongest signal is the Over at the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 (Londrina leads at the break and wins): Londrina led at half-time in 4 matches (50%), while Botafogo SP did so in only 1 (11%). In the first half Londrina averages 0.88 goals vs Botafogo’s 0.33; additionally Londrina posts a higher xG of 1.58 compared to 1.28, more shots on target 5.38 vs 2.89 and better conversion 12% vs 6%, all increasing the likelihood of maintaining the lead. Looking at the full match, Londrina scores 1.63 goals per game versus Botafogo’s 0.78, has higher points per match (1.38 vs 1.0) and a higher win rate (38% vs 22%), so the home side’s advantage should translate into a Full-Time victory. There is a risk of a turnaround — Botafogo were level at half-time in 78% of their fixtures, and Londrina’s matches finish with both teams scoring in 75% of cases — therefore I’ve also allocated significant probabilities to x/1 and x/x outcomes.