Londrina vs Goiás: match statistics

I predict an away win (Goiás). Goiás scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus Londrina’s 3, averaging 1.8 vs 0.6 goals per game, translating to a goal difference of +8 compared to +1 over the same period. The visitors have won 4 of their last 5 fixtures and drawn 1, while Londrina’s record is 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss; the efficiency gap is also reflected in points per game: 2.6 for Goiás vs 1.2 for Londrina. Defensively Goiás conceded only 1 goal in five matches (0.2 per game) versus Londrina’s 2 goals conceded (0.4 per game), giving the visitors an advantage both in attack and defensive stability.

The last 5 matches for both teams show a low BTTS frequency — 20% for Londrina and 20% for Goiás (only 1 of 5 matches each). Goiás scored 9 goals in those 5 matches (1.8 per game) and conceded 1 (0.2), while Londrina scored 3 (0.6) and conceded 2 (0.4); additionally xG over the last 5 matches is 1.51 for Goiás versus 1.12 for Londrina, confirming Goiás' offensive edge. At league level 60% of matches end with a clean sheet for one side, and the average goals is 2.5 per game, which favors 1-0/0-1 outcomes rather than Goal/Goal. Londrina’s seasonal indicators look counterintuitive (season BTTS 100% and seasonal home goals average 3.0), but they conflict with form over the last 5 matches, so I give greater weight to recent stats. On this basis I tip BTTS - No with a 70% probability versus 30% for BTTS - Yes, because Goiás regularly scores (9 in 5) and recent matches for both teams rarely finish with both teams scoring (20%).

Based on the last 5 matches and xG values I estimated expected goals: Londrina has attacking xG 1.12 (last 5) and xG against Goiás 1.32, yielding about 1.22 expected goals for the home side; Goiás has attacking xG 1.51 and xG against Londrina 1.48, yielding about 1.50 expected goals for the away side. The total expected goals is 2.72, clearly above the 1.5 line and slightly above 2.5, but below 3.5. In the last 5 matches Londrina scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and Goiás 9 goals (1.8 avg), while at home Londrina averages 9 shots and 3 on target per game, supporting offensive activity. Londrina’s seasonal stats show 100% of games over 2.5 (small sample), which together with Goiás’s scoring form increases the probability of at least 2 goals in the match. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — I recommend selecting Over 1.5 as the most probable outcome with the best risk-to-reward profile.

Data clearly favor Londrina at Half-Time/Full-Time: the hosts led at the break in 100% of seasonal matches (1 of 1) and average 2.0 goals by half-time. Londrina’s seasonal average is 3.0 goals per match and at home they have 100% wins (1 of 1) with an average of 1.0 goals conceded, suggesting they will maintain the lead after the break. Additionally, the hosts average 9.0 shots (3.0 on target) and have an xG of 0.94 with a conversion rate of 33%, while available Goiás data show an xG of 0.00 and significantly lower shot metrics by half-time. Goiás have good overall form (4 wins in their last 5, i.e. 80%), but led at the break in only 40% of those games (2 of 5) and average 0.6 goals by half-time, so the risk of a turnaround after the break is limited; therefore the recommendation is 1/1.