Londrina vs Novorizontino: match statistics

Although Novorizontino sits 6th in the table versus Londrina's 16th, I assign a slight edge to the home side based on recent form. Londrina scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per game) and remain unbeaten in that span (2 wins, 3 draws), averaging roughly 1.8 points per game. Novorizontino scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches (1.2 per game) and recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, averaging about 1.2 points per game, so the visitors’ form is less consistent. Over the season, however, the visitors have the better defense: 18 goals conceded versus 25 for Londrina, and away Novorizontino concede 0.8 goals per game compared to Londrina’s 1.11 conceded at home; simultaneously both teams have similar xG (1.49 for Londrina vs 1.39 for Novorizontino) and comparable shots per game (14 vs 12.8, 4.33 vs 4.3 on target). Considering Londrina’s superior efficiency and stability in the last five matches and only a marginal defensive advantage for Novorizontino across the season, I propose probability split: 50% home win, 26% draw, 24% away win.

I predict BTTS - Yes and assign 65% to 'yes' versus 35% to 'no'. Londrina has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% and home xG of 1.80 with an average of 1.56 goals scored per match, while Novorizontino concedes 1.39 xG and on the season allows on average 0.8 goals, suggesting the hosts should score at least once. Novorizontino however has a seasonal BTTS of only 30% and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches, so the no-goal-for-visitors scenario is realistic and justifies a 35% probability for 'no'. The xG pairing is arranged such that 1.80 home xG versus 1.39 away defence xG and 1.39 away xG versus 0.97 home defence xG indicates both teams create chances. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Londrina averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, and Novorizontino 1.2 and 1.0 respectively, which reinforces the expectation of at least one goal from both sides.

The combination of xG and defensive data suggests approximately 1.60 expected goals for Londrina (xG_for 1.80 with opponent xG_against 1.39) and 1.18 for Novorizontino (xG_for 1.39 with Londrina xG_against 0.97), total ~2.78. Seasonally Londrina records 78% of matches over 1.5 and 67% over 2.5, while Novorizontino has 60% and 40% respectively (league average 42% for Over 2.5). A Poisson distribution at total 2.78 yields roughly ~77% for Over 1.5, ~53% for Over 2.5 and ~30% for Over 3.5, reflecting an advantage for the Over on the lower lines. Additionally Londrina in the last 5 matches scores on average 2.0 goals and concedes 0.6 with 5.44 shots on target and a conversion rate of 9.0%, which increases the risk of home goals; for these reasons the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Half-time statistics clearly indicate a draw — the home team have been level at the break in 78% of their home matches, and the visitors in 60% of their away matches, yielding an average of about a 69% chance of a draw at half-time. Over the full match, however, Londrina hold the advantage: the home side’s average xG is 1.80 versus Novorizontino’s 1.39, the hosts register 16.78 shots per match compared to the visitors’ 12.8 and 5.44 shots on target versus 4.3, which translates into 56% home wins and 1.89 points per match for the hosts versus 1.3 for the visitors. Additionally, Londrina score on average 1.11 goals in second halves and win second halves 67% of the time, while Novorizontino record 1.0 second-half goals and win that half 40% of the time. Low first-half goal values (on average 0.44 goals for the home side and 0.4 for the away side at half-time) support a half-time draw scenario, while the advantage in xG and shots favors a turnaround by the home team after the break. Consequently, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).