Londrina vs São Bernardo: match statistics

São Bernardo is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table versus Londrina in 19th, and this season the visitors have 4 wins and 11 goals scored, while the hosts have only 1 win and 7 goals. Form confirms the gap — in the last 5 matches São Bernardo have won 4 times, scoring 9 and conceding 2, whereas Londrina over the same period have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses with 2 goals for and 8 against; average points over the last 5 are 2.4 for the visitors and 0.2 for the hosts. Offensively São Bernardo average 2.0 goals away with 4.67 shots on target per match and a conversion rate of 21%, while Londrina at home average 1.0 goal with 3.67 shots on target and an 8% conversion. Defensively the visitors concede only 0.67 goals per away game versus 1.33 conceded by Londrina at home, and additionally São Bernardo have 0% of away matches without scoring, whereas Londrina failed to score in 33% of home fixtures. Considering the superiority in the table (3 vs 19), form (4 wins vs 0), better efficiency (21% vs 8%) and lower goals conceded (0.67 vs 1.33), I tip a São Bernardo win.

Average xG and offensive metrics indicate a moderate signal for BTTS - Yes: Londrina has xG_for 1.39 versus São Bernardo's xG_against_away 1.83, implying roughly 1.61 expected goals for Londrina, while São Bernardo has xG_for 1.06 against Londrina's xG_against_home 1.51, or about 1.29 expected goals for São Bernardo. São Bernardo averages 2.0 goals this season and has scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 per match) with a 21% shot conversion, which strongly suggests they will come to score. Counterarguments come from Londrina’s stats: only 25% of matches with BTTS this season, 50% clean sheets and just 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 per match), indicating the home side struggle with finishing. However, Londrina generates more attempts (13.75 shots vs 9.33 for São Bernardo) and the recent xG of both teams is similar (1.3 and 1.28), so weighting São Bernardo’s seasonal 67% BTTS and the league average 47% gives advantage to the 'Yes' scenario and I assess BTTS at 60% vs 40% for 'No'.

São Bernardo has a stronger attack (avg 2.00 goals per match) than Londrina (1.25), while Londrina attempts more shots (13.75 vs 9.33) but with lower conversion (9% vs 21%). Offensive xG is 1.39 for Londrina and 1.06 for São Bernardo, and xG against are 1.51 (Londrina) and 1.83 (São Bernardo); consolidating seasonal and xG data I estimate 1.22 goals for the home side and 1.34 for the visitors, a total of 2.56 expected goals. At that total the Poisson model gives roughly a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 47% for Over 2.5 and around 25% for Over 3.5. Seasonal rates moderately support Over 2.5 (share of matches Over 2.5 is 50% for Londrina and 67% for São Bernardo), but both teams have 0% of matches Over 3.5 this season, which limits value on Over 3.5. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5 as the most likely and least risky option.

The home side drew at half-time in 3 of 4 matches this season (75%) and average 0.5 goals before the break, while São Bernardo have a half-time goals average of 0.0 (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.5 vs scoredAVGHT_away = 0.0), increasing the likelihood of a draw at HT. After the break the visitors dominate: São Bernardo average 2.0 goals in the second half and win second halves in 100% of cases (scored_2hg_avg_away = 2.0, wins_2hg_percentage_away = 100%). Additionally, form and efficiency favor the visitors — in the last 5 matches they have won 80% of games (last5_winPercentage_overall_away = 80.0) and have a 21% shot conversion rate versus the home side’s 9% (shot_conversion_rate_away = 21.0 vs shot_conversion_rate_home = 9.0), despite the hosts generating higher xG (1.39 vs 1.06). Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win (X/2) — I assign it a 30% probability; alternatives are draw/draw (X/X 20%) or home leading at the break and winning (1/1 15%) to a lesser extent. The low share of scenarios in which the visitors lead at half-time (total 10%) stems from the fact São Bernardo have not led at HT this season (leadingAtHT_away = 0.0), so I expect the turnaround to occur mainly in the second half.