Los Andes vs Godoy Cruz: match statistics

I predict a draw because Los Andes record 57% draws at home while Godoy Cruz have 60% draws away, which strongly increases the likelihood of a shared point. Los Andes average only 0.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded at home with xG for 1.58 and xG against 0.99, meaning they generate good chances (1.58 xG) but finish them poorly (conversion ~3% and 71% of matches without a goal). Godoy Cruz away score 0.6 and concede 0.8 with xG for 1.4 and xG against 1.07, have fewer SOT (2) but a higher conversion (~5%) and lower FTS (40%), so visitors score more often but are more vulnerable defensively. In the last 5 matches Los Andes average 1.8 points and conceded 1 goal, while Godoy Cruz average 1.2 points and conceded 5 goals, giving the hosts an advantage in form and defensive stability. Considering the low home combined goals average (0.86) and Los Andes’ higher xG and higher clean sheet percentage, I expect a low-scoring draw; I give the hosts a slightly higher chance of securing the split than a visitor win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 43% for Los Andes and 40% for Godoy Cruz, versus a league average of 40%. In the last 5 matches Los Andes had BTTS in only 20% of games and conceded an average of 0.2 goals (1 goal in 5 matches), while Godoy Cruz has 40% BTTS and concedes an average of 1.0 goal (5 goals in 5 matches). Los Andes generates xG 1.76 and scores 1.14 goals per game with 4.57 shots on target and a 9% conversion rate, whereas Godoy Cruz has xG 1.40 but scores only 0.6 goals with 2.0 shots on target and a 5% conversion. Additionally, Los Andes has a seasonal 43% clean sheet rate and concedes 0.71 goals on average, and Godoy Cruz’s seasonal concession total is 9 goals (0.8 per game), which together reduce the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Therefore I recommend the 'No' (No Goal) bet as the stronger signal with a 65% probability versus 35% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).

I project Los Andes to score about 1.25 goals and Godoy Cruz about 0.80 goals (total 2.05). Los Andes has an xG of 1.76 versus 1.40 for the visitors and averages 4.57 shots on target compared to 2.0, but its actual goals per game is 1.14, while Godoy Cruz only averages 0.6 goals per game, which lowers goal expectations. In the last 5 matches Los Andes scored 4 and conceded 1, while Godoy Cruz scored 4 and conceded 5, indicating better defensive stability for the home side and greater susceptibility to conceding for the visitors. Season stats show Godoy Cruz has had zero matches over 2.5 goals (0% of games), whereas Los Andes has 43% of matches over 2.5; with a league average of 1.9 goals and my forecast of 2.05 goals per match the strongest signal is to choose Under 2.5. Therefore I recommend betting Under 2.5 – although Over 1.5 looks likely (approx. 61%), the strongest and safest data-driven signal is the under 2.5 (approx. 66%).

The primary scenario is 1/1, as Los Andes lead at the break in 43% of their matches, scoring on average 0.86 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.14, while Godoy Cruz average 0.4 scored and 0.4 conceded in the first half. Additionally, Los Andes generate higher xG (1.76 versus 1.4) and average 4.57 shots on target per match compared to 2.0 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead at the break and securing the full-time win (home side win 43% of matches versus 20% for the visitors). A draw at half-time is nevertheless common — the hosts are level at the break in 57% of games and the visitors in 60% — so the X/1 and X/X scenarios receive significant shares (25% and 18% respectively) as alternatives. Options where the visitors overturn the deficit or are leading at half-time are less likely given their season average of 0.6 goals per match and only a 20% win rate, hence the low assigned probabilities for 1/2, X/2 and 2/2.