Los Chankas vs UCV Moquegua: match statistics

Los Chankas are clear favorites: at home they average 1.86 goals scored and concede only 0.86 per match, have an 86% home win rate and a positive goal difference of +7. Offensively the hosts create better chances — 12.43 shots per match with 5 on target and xG 1.37, and a finishing rate of 15%, which translates into more goals than their opponents. UCV Moquegua are significantly weak away: only 0.57 goals per match, 8.86 shots and 3.29 on target, conversion of just 6% and 57% of away matches without scoring, while conceding 1.86 on average. Although UCV have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches versus 4 for Los Chankas, their away metrics (xG 0.97 on the road and 71% away losses) show that that form does not compensate for problems away from home. Considering the hosts’ higher xG and shot volume, superior conversion and much lower share of matches without a goal (14% vs 57%), I predict a Los Chankas victory.

The BTTS - Yes scenario appears more likely: Los Chankas score an average of 1.86 goals per match and have 71% BTTS this season, averaging 10.86 shots and 4.14 shots on target with a 17% conversion rate. UCV Moquegua averages just 0.57 goals seasonally, but in the last 5 matches they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and their last 5 fixtures show 80% BTTS, while seasonally they concede 1.86 goals on average. xG indicates both teams create chances: Los Chankas xG_for 1.23 and xG_against 1.33, UCV xG_for 0.97 and xG_against 1.70, suggesting expected goals close to 1 per team and that UCV is vulnerable to conceding. Additionally the league has 59% BTTS, with clean sheet rates of only 29% for home teams and 14% for away teams, so the likelihood of a shutout is limited. Considering home BTTS 71% seasonally, away 80% BTTS in the last 5, and UCV’s high goals conceded (1.86), I assign 68% to “yes” and 32% to “no”, selecting BTTS - Yes.

Season-long statistics and xG indicate a moderately high goal potential: Los Chankas score at home on average 1.86 goals (xG 1.23), while UCV Moquegua concede away on average 1.86 goals (xG against UCV 1.70) with their own xG_for 0.97. Averaging assessments based on season averages and xG yields a forecast of 1.66 goals for the home side and 1.04 for the visitors, i.e. a total of 2.70 expected goals. Seasonally, Los Chankas matches went over 2.5 in 86% of cases, and UCV in 71%; the home team also records 71% of matches with both teams scoring, which supports a scenario of at least two goals in the match. However, in the last 5 games Los Chankas have scored only 4 goals (0.8 average) and had 20% of matches over 2.5, which reduces short-term chances of a high-scoring affair. Taking this into account, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is the over on the 1.5 line with an estimated probability of about 88%.

I expect a draw at half-time because the home side averages only 0.43 goals before the break while the visitors average 0.29, and in Los Chankas’ last five matches 80% were level at half-time. After the break Los Chankas have a clear advantage — they score an average of 1.43 goals in the second half and in 100% of matches they score at least one goal after the break, whereas UCV concedes an average of 1.29 goals after half-time. Over the season the hosts score 1.86 goals per game with a 57% home win rate, while UCV has 0.57 goals per game and only a 14% win rate (1.86 vs 0.57; 57% vs 14%), which favors a comeback after the break. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Los Chankas win at full-time (X/1); I have assigned the highest probability to this scenario.