Los Chankas vs UTC Cajamarca: match statistics

Los Chankas have a clear home advantage: at home they average 1.75 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded per match, with 50% clean sheets and an 88% win rate at their stadium. UTC Cajamarca away averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, has zero clean sheets on the road and wins only 25% of away fixtures. Across the season Los Chankas have 10 wins and 23 goals scored, while UTC have only 4 wins and 19 goals scored with 24 conceded, which confirms the visitors’ weaker defense. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 2 goals and averaged 0.8 points per game, while the visitors scored 3 goals and averaged 0.4 points per game, so although both teams struggle for finishing, the hosts clearly collect more points. xG is practically even (1.38 for the hosts at home vs 1.38 for the visitors away), but Los Chankas’ better shot conversion (14% vs 10%) and a lower average FTS (hosts fail to score in 13% of home games vs 38% of visitors’ away matches) lead me to conclude in favor of a home win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Los Chankas and 63% for UTC, with a league average of 55%, producing a baseline signal for BTTS - Yes around 56%. UTC has 0% clean sheets and concedes 2.0 goals per match on average, while Los Chankas concedes 1.0 goals per match and has 38% clean sheets; this strongly indicates the away side will concede, which supports BTTS. Counters to this are recent form: in the last 5 matches the home side have BTTS in only 20% and the away side 40%, with average goals in the last 5 of 0.4 and 0.6 per match respectively — this lowers expectations for goals from both sides. However, xG and shot metrics indicate chances at both ends: seasonal xG for Los Chankas is 1.3 (recent xG 1.42) versus xG conceded to UTC 1.35, and seasonal xG for UTC is 1.38 versus xG conceded to Los Chankas 1.23, with average shots on target of 3.88 and 4.88. Considering the away side’s 0% clean sheets, a league BTTS baseline above 55% and the xG comparison, I favor the "Yes" scenario and estimate BTTS - Yes at 60% and No at 40%.

The model projects 1.33 goals for Los Chankas and 1.30 for UTC, totalling 2.63 goals — calculated as the average of their attacking xG (Los Chankas xG 1.30, UTC xG 1.38) and opponents’ xG (UTC concedes 1.35, Los Chankas concedes 1.23). Season rates for matches over 1.5 goals are 63% for the home side and 100% for the away side (average 81.5%), and over 0.5 goals occurred in 88% and 100% of matches respectively, which strongly favors Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line the signal is moderate: home Over 2.5 at 38%, away at 63% (average 50.5%), and the total xG=2.63 plus average shots 11.5/12.75 and shots on target 3.88/4.88 suggest a slight edge to Over (I estimate ~52%). Over 3.5 looks unlikely — seasonal values 25% and 38% give an average ~31.5% for Over 3.5, so Under has a clear edge; therefore I recommend playing Over on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal.

I forecast the most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time (X/1), because the first half finishes level in 50% of Los Chankas’ matches and in 63% of UTC’s matches (average ~56%), while home teams lead at the break in 38% of fixtures. Los Chankas score an average of 0.5 goals by half-time versus 0.25 for UTC and accumulate 1.63 points gained by half-time per match compared to the visitors’ 0.63, indicating their advantage in the first half. Goals frequently occur after the break: average goals in second halves are 1.38 for hosts and 2.25 for away teams, and the percentage of matches with at least one goal after the interval is 88% for Los Chankas and 100% for UTC, so matches are usually decided in the second half. UTC lose 63% of matches and concede an average of 2.0 goals per game, and the season average points for away sides is 0.88 versus 1.25 for hosts, therefore the home side holds the edge for the final result. For these reasons I assign the highest probability to the X/1 scenario (32%); 1/1 is given 30% as a realistic alternative, X/X 20%, and scenarios with UTC leading at half-time (2/*) are rated 0% given that the visitors were leading at the break in 0% of their matches.