Ludogorets II vs Fratria: match statistics

Fratria sit 3rd, while Ludogorets II are 10th, and the gap is also reflected in their current form: the visitors have remained unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins and 3 draws), compared with just 1 victory for the hosts during the same period. Fratria average 1.67 goals per away game and have not suffered a defeat, whereas Ludogorets II score just 1 goal per home match and fail to find the net in 33% of their outings. The visitors create higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.46 compared with the hosts’ 1.01, while also recording 4.33 shots on target per game versus just 1.33 for their opponents. Ludogorets II have kept a clean sheet in none of their home matches and concede an average of 1.33 goals, which favors the more efficient Fratria side. However, Fratria’s high 67% draw rate away from home increases the likelihood of the points being shared, so the visitors’ advantage is not decisive.

Ludogorets II have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches this season and concede an average of just 0.60 goals per game, significantly limiting Fratria’s chances of scoring. However, the hosts have their own offensive problems: they score an average of 1.20 goals, failed to score in 20% of their matches, and BTTS landed in only 20% of their games. Fratria are more effective, averaging 1.67 goals and recording BTTS in 67% of matches, but their last five fixtures produced averages of 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. In terms of current form, Ludogorets II have an attacking xG of 1.14, while Fratria allow opponents 1.27 xG, making a home goal realistic; nevertheless, the hosts’ strong season-long defensive record remains the more important factor. As a result, the outcome where at least one team fails to score is more likely than goals at both ends. This supports the BTTS - No selection rather than BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal).

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as Ludogorets II finished below this line in 80% of their matches, compared with 67% for Fratria. The hosts concede just 0.60 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 60% of their appearances, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential despite their average of 1.67 goals scored. In their last five matches, both teams conceded 1.0 goal per game, while their combined scoring averages stand at 2.0 for Ludogorets II and 2.6 for Fratria. Matches featuring Over 2.5 goals have also been rare: 20% for the hosts and 33% for the visitors, while the projected total of 2.25 goals remains clearly below the 3.5 line. The xG figures from the last five matches indicate moderate chance creation, at 1.14 for the hosts and 1.35 for the visitors, supporting a scenario with a maximum of three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Ludogorets II were level at the break in 60% of their matches, while Fratria recorded the same outcome in as many as 80% of their last five games. The first halves should be cautious: the hosts average 0.4 goals before the break, compared with 0.67 for the visitors, and both teams kept a clean sheet in the first half in 60% and 67% of their matches, respectively. Fratria remain difficult to beat over the full match, having lost none of their last five games and recorded draws in 60% of them, while Ludogorets II have won only 1 of their last 5 outings. However, the hosts possess a solid defence, conceding an average of just 0.6 goals per match and keeping clean sheets in 60% of games, which limits the likelihood of a decisive away victory. Similar xG figures—1.57 for Ludogorets II versus 1.46 for Fratria—further point to a closely contested finish.